NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If you think the worst is over for oil, think again.

While prices have retreated from the records hit this fall, the onset of winter, and worries about supply disruptions, mean energy prices could very well head right back up again in coming weeks and months, industry analysts said.

"There's tremendous potential for spikes we've never seen before," said Peter Beutel, analyst with Cameron Hanover.

With supplies of heating oil, diesel fuel and other so-called distillate products down about 13 percent from a year ago heading into winter, reports of heating oil shortages could send prices right back above $50 a barrel, Beutel said.

"You might see some sort of buying interest coming in on other factors, such as events in the Middle East, but it's weather that has the potential to really turn this market crazy," he said.

Tuesday, the official first day of winter, saw prices little changed from Monday. But while the U.S. light crude February contract has fallen sharply from the record highs set in October, it's still up about 40 percent for the year.

Weather 2000 Inc., a long-range forecasting service, is estimating this winter will be significantly colder than normal, especially in the eastern United States -- the world's largest market for heating oil.

"For third consecutive winter, harsh winter weather will be the main theme for eastern United States," said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist for Weather 2000.

Early forecasts suggest this winter could bring more prolonged cold than last winter, when the worst weather was limited to record lows hit in January, he said.

If those forecasts bear out, that will tend to push oil high, according to the analysts.

About 50 percent of the nation's heating oil usage comes from five states in the Northeast -- Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, according to Beutel, so the Northeast being colder than normal has the potential to drive up oil prices higher than a cold winter for the West or Rocky Mountain regions.

But weather isn't the only issue for oil prices.

A. F. Alhajji, associate professor at Ohio Northern University, said tensions in the Middle East remain high, and there's concerns of escalating violence ahead of the Iraqi elections set for late January.

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So far violence has not affected oil production outside of Iraq, but if there is an attack on Saudi oil facilities or on a major shipping lane used by oil tankers, it could push oil to new record highs, Alhajji said.

"Prices are still high. They did not decline enough to say we are away from a problem," he said, adding we may see some serious spikes if al-Qaida hits facilities in Saudi Arabia or other producers, though further attacks in Iraq have already been factored in by most oil traders.

Oppenheimer oil analyst Fadel Gheit said that speculators have added about $15 a barrel to the price of oil due to worries about supply disruptions. While he's not convinced oil is headed back to record highs, price spikes are a worry for the next few months.

"If you have frigid weather on one hand, and all of sudden you have attack on facility in the Middle East, that's a perfect storm for speculators," he said.