NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks are set to end January with declines, and whether February will be any better could be determined by the slew of potentially market-moving events due in the week ahead.

It's been a very tough month for stocks, with the major indexes all set to close with declines, barring a stupendous rally Monday -- which analysts say is unlikely.

Those who monitor telling market indicators think that a down January could mean a down 2005. However, others say it's too soon to tell. (For a look at the January effect, click here.)

Theories as to why the market has been in pain this month have surrounded a few key issues. In particular, the market is seeing a normal bout of consolidation after the big rally in the fourth quarter of 2004. That consolidation has been exacerbated by a new spike in oil prices this month, the expectation for slowing earnings and economic growth in the year ahead and a continued rise in interest rates.

If that is the case, there may not be much in the week ahead that's going to get investors over the hump and lift stocks out of the bottom of the trading range they've been hovering in.

However, other theories say investors have been nervous ahead of Sunday's elections in Iraq. Iraqis are set to go to the polls to elect members of a new National Assembly, but violence ahead of the vote has intensified.

Expectations are that there will be increased violence, that voter turnout will be low, and that there may not be a clear winner.

"I think next week will be dependent on the Iraqi elections," said Mark Bryant, senior vice president at Brean, Murray & Co. "If things don't go too badly, there is little bloodshed and a clear winner, it will be another step forward for the country."

That would also have an impact on the U.S. economy, on oil prices, and on the stock market, Bryant added.

"I think just getting past these Iraqi elections this weekend, good, bad or indifferent would help us," said John Hughes, market analyst at Shields & Co.

Investors will also be keeping on eye on the Sunday meeting of OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The cartel is due to discuss production levels and is not expected to announce a change in output.

After the week finally does get started, the biggest events for investors are likely the next Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting, the State of the Union Address and the onslaught of economic news, including reports on the manufacturing sector and the labor market.

The central bank is meeting Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss interest-rate policy and is widely expected to boost the Fed funds rate, a key overnight bank lending rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 2.5 percent. That would be the sixth such rise since June of last year.

Such a hike is already factored into the stock market, analysts say. What's more of interest is the closely-watched statement, in which the Fed gives its assessment of the economy and hints at where rates may go in the near future. (For a detailed preview of the upcoming Fed meeting, click here.)

Wednesday evening, George Bush gives his annual State of the Union address. The president is expected to discuss more domestic issues than he did at his recent inauguration, including plans for reforming Social Security, fostering jobs and cutting the budget deficit.

A few key earnings are due, too. However, the earnings may not have much of an impact on stocks next week -- they sure haven't so far, even though they've been very positive.

Investors have also taken a similarly nonchalant response to the recent spate of big mergers, including Friday's news that Procter & Gamble is buying Gillette in a $57 billion all-stock deal.

Neither the Fed nor the earnings are likely to provide too many surprises for investors, said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services.

He says that the State of the Union address could have a big impact on stocks. However, more likely, once the Iraqi elections have passed, the key focus for stocks next week will be the economic news, particularly Friday's monthly payrolls report.

Investors who were already worried about a slowdown in the economy got sent an extra jolt Friday, following a weaker-than-expected read on gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter. They'll be looking for more encouraging signs in the December and January reports due next week.

"I'm hoping that because we've gone through virtually a whole month of selling, we'll be in a position to get a good bounce off of the bottom of the trading range," Mendelsohn said.

"If we see a clear outcome in Iraq, then if the economic news kicks in and it's pretty good too, that could be our catalyst," Mendelsohn added. "If not, then the (recent) declines become more worrisome."

• Monday brings reports on personal income and personal spending before the bell. Income likely rose 0.4 percent in December, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, after rising 0.3 percent in November. Spending likely rose 0.8 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in November.
• Also Monday, reports are due on new home sales in December. Sales are expected to have risen to a 1.2 million unit annual rate from a 1.125 million unit annual rate in November.
• Monday also brings the Chicago PMI, a look at manufacturing in the midwest region. The index is expected to have fall to 59.8 in January from 61.2 in January.
• The Institute for Supply Management releases its manufacturing index Tuesday. The ISM index is expected to have rise to 57.7 in January from 57.3 in December.
• Tuesday also brings the December read on construction spending. Spending is expected to have risen 0.5 percent, according to estimates, after falling 0.4 percent in November.
• The first read on fourth-quarter productivity is due Thursday. Productivity is expected to have risen at a 2.0 percent annual rate after rising at a rate of 1.8 percent in the third quarter.
• The Institute for Supply Management's read on the services sector of the economy is due Thursday. The index is expected to have fallen to 61.0 in January from 63.9 in December.
• The January unemployment report is due Friday. Employers are expected to have boosted their payrolls by 185,000 after adding 157,000 in December. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to hold steady at a 5.4 percent rate.
• Also Friday, investors will get the revised read on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The sentiment index likely rose to 96.4 in January from an initial read of 95.8 in December, according to economists' forecasts.

• On Monday, Exxon Mobil (Research) is due to report results before the bell. The Dow component likely earned $1.07, according to analysts surveyed by tracking firm First Call, up from 68 cents a year ago.
• After the close Monday, Walt Disney (Research) is expected to report earnings of 29 cents per share, down from 33 cents a year ago.
• Google (Research) reports after the close Tuesday. The Web search engine is expected to have earned 77 cents per share. The company was not traded publicly a year ago.
• Boeing (Research) is due Wednesday morning. The Dow component likely earned 6 cents per share, down from 50 cents a year ago.
• Amazon.com (Research) is due after the close Wednesday. Amazon likely earned 40 cents per share, analysts estimate, up from 29 cents a year ago.
• Friday morning, Time Warner (Research) reports earnings. The media conglomerate (and parent of CNN/Money.com) is expected to have earned 16 cents per share, up from 14 cents a year earlier.