Execs see more auto industry woes
Survey: Leaders see bankruptcy filing in '06, automaker consolidation by '08.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - A survey of top auto executives around the globe released Wednesday found that three out of four are expecting another major bankruptcy -- like parts maker Delphi -- in the sector this year, and just more than half expect one of the major automakers will disappear through consolidation by 2008.

The survey of 140 senior executives at vehicle manufacturers and automotive suppliers by KPMG LLP, the U.S. accounting and advisory firm, found that 76 percent answered "Yes" when asked "Do you think any major (automakers) or suppliers will file for bankruptcy in the next year?"

It was the first time the bankruptcy question had been asked in KPMG's annual survey.

The survey also found that 51 percent expect consolidation will remove one of the major automakers sometime in the next three years. The previous year's survey found only 35 percent were looking for consolidation to take out one of the automakers.

The survey was conducted in October and November, and KPMG couldn't say how many of those responding answered the question before Delphi Corp. the world's largest auto parts maker, filed for bankruptcy court protection Oct. 8.

But since Delphi's bankruptcy, speculation has swirled that General Motors Corp. (Research) might be forced to follow its former parts unit into bankruptcy, even though GM executives have repeatedly denied they have such plans. GM spun off Delphi in 1999, and it faces up to $12 billion in contract obligations to its former employees at the auto parts maker.

GM could also find its own production line idled if the United Auto Workers were to strike Delphi in response to management's demands for deep cuts in wages and benefits. Delphi management has threatened to go to bankruptcy court to void labor deals without an agreement on cost cuts.

Both GM and Ford Motor Co. (Research) will lose billions on their core automotive operations in 2005, and both are planning steep cuts in capacity to stem losses, although Ford has yet to give details of its plans.

The KPMG survey did not address which companies might be forced to file bankruptcy or lose their independent status through consolidation. Betsy Meter, a partner with KPMG's auto group, wouldn't speculate on the chances of bankruptcy or consolidation either.

"Each of these companies is taking action to restructure, but I think if you've got a crystal ball you could predict what's going to happen," she said. "It's anyone guess how it works out."

The survey also saw a rough profit picture ahead, especially for the North American auto industry. Only 10 percent of those surveyed expect the profit outlook "will generally rise," while about 15 percent said they expect the profit outlook will generally decline.

Another 21 percent thought it would remain little changed from current conditions, and just over 50 percent expect its profitability to be volatile and unpredictable in North America. The survey asked about the outlook for both automakers and their suppliers.

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For a closer look at the "perfect storm" of problems facing GM, click here.

For more news on autos and automakers, click hereTop of page

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