Wall St. braces for big earnings deluge
The fourth-quarter earnings start to pour in next week, giving the stock rally a new challenge.
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wall Street's resolve is put to the test this week as investors return from a long holiday weekend to face a wave of fourth-quarter earnings among other challenges to the nascent 2006 stock rally. Investors hit the ground running early in 2006, with the blue-chip averages rising for six out of the first seven sessions of the year, and the tech-fueled Nasdaq making it seven in a row. The move left investors both optimistic and over-extended -- as became apparent at the end of last week, when the rally hit a roadblock -- and the stock market could be due for a bit more selling in the short term before attempting another run up, analysts say. (Full story). The week ahead brings no shortage of potential trap-falls in the way of reads on inflation, housing, manufacturing and consumer sentiment. (For details, click here.) But it also brings plenty of potential for advancement, due to the plethora of earnings on tap. "Next week is not a big week in terms of the number of companies reporting, but it is a big week in terms of influential companies reporting," said John Butters, senior research analyst at earnings tracker Thomson Financial. Roughly 11 percent of the S&P 500, or 56 of the companies that make up the benchmark index, are due to release results next week. Technology and financial companies dominate the list, Butters said, and six components of the Dow industrials are due, including Intel, IBM and Citigroup. (For a preview, click here.) The week is also a transitional one for the fourth-quarter earnings reporting period in that it brings the last big group of earnings pre-announcements -- which are typically more negative than positive -- and the first big group of actual earnings reports. Currently analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting earnings growth of 13.2 percent in the quarter versus a year ago. "Next week is when the earnings period really starts to heat up," said Chris Johnson, market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "I don't want to call it a litmus test, but I think investors are likely to take a cue from what happens. "It may be so goes the first heavy week of earnings, so goes the first quarter," he added, playing on the old adage about the S&P 500 performance in January which says, 'so goes January, so goes the year.' Don't forget oil and inflation
The Producer Price index (PPI) last week showed a bigger-than-expected rise in wholesale prices, but little in the way of so-called "core" inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. Investors this week will be hoping the Consumer Price index (CPI) shows a similar lack of inflationary growth, as that would bode well for bets that the Federal Reserve will end its 18-month rate hiking campaign soon. "CPI is certainly the big economic report of next week," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "The Fed's beige book and some of the manufacturing numbers will be looked at as well." He said that the direction of oil prices and the developing story regarding Iran will also play a role in trade, although the earnings news is likely to dominate. "If the Iran issue fades, stocks can continue to move up in the week ahead," said Ghriskey, "but the heavy earnings weeks tend to be volatile anyway, so it could get choppy." Earnings to watch
Key economic news
|
|