Wall St. braces for big earnings deluge
The fourth-quarter earnings start to pour in next week, giving the stock rally a new challenge.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wall Street's resolve is put to the test this week as investors return from a long holiday weekend to face a wave of fourth-quarter earnings among other challenges to the nascent 2006 stock rally.

Investors hit the ground running early in 2006, with the blue-chip averages rising for six out of the first seven sessions of the year, and the tech-fueled Nasdaq making it seven in a row.

The move left investors both optimistic and over-extended -- as became apparent at the end of last week, when the rally hit a roadblock -- and the stock market could be due for a bit more selling in the short term before attempting another run up, analysts say. (Full story).

The week ahead brings no shortage of potential trap-falls in the way of reads on inflation, housing, manufacturing and consumer sentiment. (For details, click here.)

But it also brings plenty of potential for advancement, due to the plethora of earnings on tap.

"Next week is not a big week in terms of the number of companies reporting, but it is a big week in terms of influential companies reporting," said John Butters, senior research analyst at earnings tracker Thomson Financial.

Roughly 11 percent of the S&P 500, or 56 of the companies that make up the benchmark index, are due to release results next week. Technology and financial companies dominate the list, Butters said, and six components of the Dow industrials are due, including Intel, IBM and Citigroup. (For a preview, click here.)

The week is also a transitional one for the fourth-quarter earnings reporting period in that it brings the last big group of earnings pre-announcements -- which are typically more negative than positive -- and the first big group of actual earnings reports.

Currently analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting earnings growth of 13.2 percent in the quarter versus a year ago.

"Next week is when the earnings period really starts to heat up," said Chris Johnson, market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "I don't want to call it a litmus test, but I think investors are likely to take a cue from what happens.

"It may be so goes the first heavy week of earnings, so goes the first quarter," he added, playing on the old adage about the S&P 500 performance in January which says, 'so goes January, so goes the year.'

Don't forget oil and inflation

The Producer Price index (PPI) last week showed a bigger-than-expected rise in wholesale prices, but little in the way of so-called "core" inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.

Investors this week will be hoping the Consumer Price index (CPI) shows a similar lack of inflationary growth, as that would bode well for bets that the Federal Reserve will end its 18-month rate hiking campaign soon.

"CPI is certainly the big economic report of next week," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "The Fed's beige book and some of the manufacturing numbers will be looked at as well."

He said that the direction of oil prices and the developing story regarding Iran will also play a role in trade, although the earnings news is likely to dominate.

"If the Iran issue fades, stocks can continue to move up in the week ahead," said Ghriskey, "but the heavy earnings weeks tend to be volatile anyway, so it could get choppy."

Earnings to watch

  • IBM (Research), due to report results Tuesday, is expected to have earned $1.94 per share, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, versus $1.81 a year ago.
  • Intel (Research), also due Tuesday, is expected to have earned 43 cents per share, after earnings 33 cents a year ago.
  • Yahoo! (Research) is expected to have earned 17 cents per share, when it reports its results Tuesday. The Internet search engine earned 13 cents a year ago.
  • J.P. Morgan Chase (Research) reports results Wednesday morning. The financial company is expected to have earned 73 cents per share, versus 64 cents a year ago, according to analysts.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (Research) is expected to have earned 25 cents per share, according to analysts. The chipmaker, due to report results Wednesday evening, earned five cents a share a year ago.
  • Apple Computer (Research), due to report results Wednesday evening, is expected to have earned 60 cents per share after earning 35 cents a year ago.
  • eBay (Research) also reports results Wednesday evening. The online auctioneer likely earned 22 cents per share, analysts expect, after earning 17 cents per share a year ago.
  • Merrill Lynch (Research) reports results Thursday morning. The brokerage likely earned $1.32 per share, versus $1.19 a year ago, according to analysts.
  • Pfizer (Research) reports result Thursday morning and is expected to have earned 42 cents per share, down from 58 cents a year ago.
  • Motorola (Research) reports results Thursday evening and is expected to have earned 34 cents per share, versus 27 cents a year ago.
  • Citigroup (Research) reports results Friday morning. The financial leader is expected to have earned $1 per share, after earning $1.02 per share a year ago.
  • General Electric (Research) is expected to have earned 55 cents per share, versus 51 cents a year ago. The diversified manufacturer reports results Friday morning.

Key economic news

  • The NY Empire State Index, a regional read on manufacturing, is due Tuesday. The index is expected to have fallen to 22.0 in January, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, down from 28.7 in December.
  • December industrial production, due Tuesday, is expected to have risen 0.6 percent after rising 0.7 percent in November. Capacity Utilization, is expected to have risen to 80.5 percent from 80.2 percent in November.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Wednesday, is expected to have risen 0.2 percent in January, after falling 0.6 percent in December. The "core" CPI is expected to have risen 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent in November.
  • The weekly oil inventories report and the Fed's "beige book" read on the economy are both due Wednesday, too.
  • December housing starts, due Thursday, are expected to have fallen to a 2.05 million unit annual rate from a 2.123 million unit rate in November. Building permits are expected to have fallen to a 2.1 million unit rate, down from a 2.163 million unit rate in November.
  • Thursday also brings the release of the January Philadelphia Fed index. The regional read on manufacturing is expected to have risen to 13.4 from 12.6 in December.
  • The University of Michigan's preliminary read on consumer sentiment is due Friday. The January index is expected to come in at 93.0 versus 91.5 in December.
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