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Pfizer set to report sales slump
A projected decline in Pfizer 4Q sales is priced into stock, but February is still a wild card.
By Aaron Smith, CNNMoney.com staff writer


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Have you seen Pfizer's stock price lately? It could be worse. In fact, it has been worse.

The stock price for the world's biggest drug maker has taken a beating, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2005, when the stock lost about a quarter of its value. This happened after Oct. 20, when the company pulled its financial guidance for 2006 and 2007.

But Pfizer's (down $0.45 to $24.22, Research) stock has since recovered from its guidance fallout, just in time for an earnings report.

Sales slump is no surprise

Pfizer, a gigantic drug maker that reported $52.5 billion in 2004 sales, is expected to report a sales slump of 12 percent when it announces fourth quarter 2005 earnings on Jan. 19, according to consensus from Thomson Financial. Will the stock price plunge again if the beleaguered drug company meets these expectations?

Probably not, said Barbara Ryan, analyst for Deutsche Bank North America, who projects an even steeper sales decline of 13.7 percent. Ryan said that Pfizer's well-publicized woes, primarily from the loss of profitable products and the squeeze from generic competition, have already been priced into the stock.

"I don't think there's anything here that's going to be a surprise," said Ryan, referring to fourth quarter earnings. "I think the big catalyst is going to be the Feb. 10 analysts' meeting where they give guidance." Ryan expects the company to provide "granular" detail of its financial health.

February's wildcard

Pfizer is slated to announce financial guidance after a hiatus of nearly four months at its analyst meeting. Compared to the fourth quarter earnings that are already priced into its shares, the Feb. 10 meeting is more of an unknown for analysts, and is more of a wild card in terms of how it could impact stock price.

Several factors are pressuring Pfizer earnings' in the fourth quarter:

Bextra and Celebrex: These arthritis painkillers from Pfizer are members of the same drug class as Vioxx, the drug that Merck (Research) pulled off the market in September, 2004, after a study showed an increased chance of heart attacks and strokes in patients who took the drug for 18 months. In April, Pfizer pulled Bextra off the market at the FDA's request. Bextra had $1.3 billion in 2004 sales. But Pfizer kept Celebrex on the market with a revised label -- but sales, which were $3.3 billion in 2004, have plunged.

Zoloft: This antidepressant totaled $3.4 billion in 2004 sales, but because it's going generic in 2006, Pfizer will bid adieu to billions of dollars in annual revenue.

Viagra: One of the most widely recognized brand names in the industry, this treatment for male sexual dysfunction totaled $1.7 billion in 2004 sales, but it may have already had its day in the sun. Al Rauch, analyst for A.G. Edwards, projects $1.6 billion for 2005 sales and $1.5 billion for 2006, showing a gradual decline. Like other analysts, Rauch believes that the erectile dysfunction market has peaked.

Lipitor: This cholesterol-lowering statin is the world's top-selling drug, with $10.8 billion in 2004 sales. Ryan said that its heady sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2004 was a hard act to follow in the fourth quarter of 2005. Lipitor's projected inability to match that growth could contribute to the overall sales decline in 2005's year-end quarter, said Ryan.

Pfizer chief executive officer Henry McKinnell called his company "a Pfizer in transition" when he pulled guidance on Oct. 20. But McKinnell asked analysts to look ahead, and said that company's performance would improve during the next two years.

The year ahead

And things are looking up in 2006 for Pfizer. "They'll continue to be pressured but we expect their sales in 2006 to be up modestly, as in 2007," said Ryan, who expects the FDA in 2006 to approve several of Pfizer's experimental drugs, including Exubera, a inhalable form of insulin for diabetics, Indiplon, a treatment for insomnia, and Sutent, a cancer treatment that shrinks tumors. Ryan projects 2009 sales of $1.6 billion for Exubera, $1.1 billion for Indiplon, and $650 million for Sutent.

Novartis (up $0.48 to $55.38, Research), a Swiss drug giant with $28.2 billion in 2004 sales, also reports fourth quarter earnings on Jan. 19. That company has faired better than Pfizer, with its sales projected to jump of 14 percent, according to consensus from Thomson Financial.

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To see how the drug market performed in 2005, click hereTop of page

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