Andy Serwer Commentary:
Street Life by Andy Serwer Column archive
Serwer: Pain, yes, but not terminal
The market is in for a crunch this morning, but you shouldn't worry too much ... here's why.


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NEW YORK (Fortune) - "Don't worry, baby," as the Beach Boys would sing. "Everything will turn out alright."

It looks scary out there, but fear not, this too shall pass. Here's what's going on:

The U.S. market tanked yesterday because of 1) higher oil prices; 2) weak earnings (which carried on after the bell ... see Yahoo (Research)! and Intel (Research)); and 3) the plunging market in Japan.

And U.S. stocks are generally very weak this morning and are falling at the open. Pain, but not terminal.

Here's why: oil's been rising and falling for months. Years! Nothing new there. Ditto for earnings. Same old story.

Japan is different, but not that different. The market meltdown there was precipitated by a scandal concerning a little-known Internet company called Livedoor. It's sort of a Google/Yahoo! deal -- you can check out its Web site. Like so many Japanese companies, Livedoor has tentacles in all sorts of other businesses, in this case media businesses like TV and books.

But here's the thing: 1) Livedoor is pretty small -- only $278 million of revenues in 2004; 2) The Japanese market was due for a correction -- it was up more than 30% in 2005, way outpacing U.S. stocks; and 3) Japanese stocks and U.S. stocks aren't particularly correlated over time. (See 2005 and the entire 1990s.)

So a bumpy ride today, but don't think the sky is falling.

______________

E-mail Andy Serwer at serwer@fortunemail.com. Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.