Bulls try to show their mettle
Investor optimism has protected stocks in a notoriously difficult month on Wall St. Will it continue?
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - So far, so good.

For a month known as one of the tougher on Wall Street, markets have done just fine and in the case of the biggest blue chips, quite well. But with less touchstones to grab onto during the rest of February, things could get choppier, particularly next week.

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"It's going to be a fly-by-the-seat of our pants kind of week," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at Johnson Illington Advisors, noting that without a standout catalyst in the earnings or economic news, anything could be market moving.

However, he said that there's an affirmative tone to the market right now that should at least give stocks a floor in the week ahead and perhaps beyond.

"It's fairly clear that the stock market is performing well and indicators tell us that the economy is in good shape," Johnson said.

In addition, he said that the markets seem to have accepted that the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign is not yet finished. The statement from the last Fed policy meeting in January said as much, and comments from new Fed chief Ben Bernanke last week seemed to confirm that at least one, or possibly two more hikes are on tap.

Yet, stocks gained, with investors seeming to take the news in stride.

All financial markets are closed Monday in observance of the President's Day holiday.

Later in the week, earnings reports are due from Wal-Mart, Home Depot and other retailers. But with most of the fourth-quarter results already having been released, the impact from these earnings could be minimal. However, the economic news could be more pivotal. (To see the calendar, click here.)

Consumer prices, oil and more about the Fed

Investors will continue to be influenced by fluctuations in the oil market and the impact that has on energy stocks -- last year's biggest stock sector winner. Attacks on Saturday by militants in Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest oil exporter, led Royal Dutch Shell to suspend operations at some facilities, cutting the country's export capacity of 2.4 million barrels a day by 21 percent.

The week ahead is short, but brings some relatively important economic data, said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services.

He said that the read on consumer prices will be the most relevant, particularly as it follows on the heels of last week's surprisingly strong read on producer prices.

Reports on leading economic indicators and durable goods orders will also be watched.

Normally, the release of the minutes from the last Fed policy meeting -- set for Tuesday -- would be a market mover, but that may not be the case in the week ahead, Mendelsohn said.

"You've got three new members coming in at the next policy meeting in March, plus Bernanke just spoke last week," he said.

Despite the underlying positive indications, the week ahead could brings some selling, the analysts said.

"The market looks good here on a technical basis, but you're also starting to approach some overbought areas, which could send us lower," Mendelsohn added.

Beyond that, the push and pull between growth and worries about too much growth is likely to remain, at least until the next Federal Reserve meeting in late March.

"We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices," said Barry Hyman, equity strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum. "But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation."

Here's what's coming up.

Key events in the week ahead

  • On Tuesday, the January leading economic indicators index is due. The index is expected to have risen 0.5 percent in the month, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, versus a gain of 0.1 percent in the previous month.
  • A pair of retailers report earnings on Tuesday. Home Depot is expected to have earned 56 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial/First Call estimates, versus 47 cents a year ago. Fellow Dow 30 retailer Wal-Mart Stores is expected to have earned 83 cents versus 75 cents a year ago.
  • Also, on Tuesday, the minutes from the Jan. 31 Federal Reserve policy meeting are due to be released.
  • The January Consumer Price index (CPI) is due Wednesday. CPI is expected to have risen 0.5 percent in the month after falling 0.1 percent in December. The so-called "core" CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent in December.
  • Wednesday also brings the weekly crude oil inventories report.
  • On Thursday, Toll Brothers, a bellwether for the homebuilders, is expected to report earnings of 92 cents per share, versus 67 cents a year ago.
  • The January read on durable goods orders is due Friday. The index is expected to have fallen 0.3 percent in the month, after rising 1.8 percent in the previous month, according to economists' predictions.

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