NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Okay, I'm betting on Paul Giamatti. Not because I like his acting, mind you (I fell asleep watching "Sideways" and didn't see "Cinderella Man.") No, I'm going with what the "market" says.

Like most offices across the country, ours has an Oscar pool. Hey, it's better than doing actual work and you get the non-sports types involved. The guy running our contest has put up a CD soundtrack of the Best Soundtrack winner as the prize.

But the bets this year are fairly predictable. "Brokeback Mountain" is the clear favorite for Best Picture (though you're starting to hear predictions for a "Crash" upset). And from there each category has its popular front runner.

Except Best Supporting Actor. The popular favorite grabbing magazine gloss is George Clooney for "Syriana." But Giamatti's name is usually in close proximity.

What do you do for your office pool pick? Go to the offshore betting sites (Intrade.com, Tradesports.com, et al) and see what they say.

And as of this morning, their pick is Giamatti. Clooney is a close second, but the edge is definitely with the "Cinderella Man." Rather, his corner man.

These betting sites are getting popular and are pretty accurate, coming up with clear winners for the presidential races and Pope pick ahead of the event.

That's because it is the market at work ... a mass of investors or bettors -- pick your term -- with varying degrees of information voting with dollars. It works for horse races and it works for stocks. The larger the mass, the more accurate the pick, be it win-place-show or growth-value-junk.

That last point is very important. One guy betting on a horse or stock to win doesn't mean much. But thousands betting...

Now the number of contracts betting on Giamatti is more than most in the category, but not that large when compared to, say, U.S. elections. Still, the market is sending a message. And I'm listening.

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Allen Wastler is managing editor of CNNMoney.com and appears on CNN's "In the Money." He can be emailed at wastlerswanderings@cnn.com.

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