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Decline in trade gap seen short-lived
March deficit posts surprise drop to $62 billion as exports show strong growth, lower oil prices curb imports.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The nation's trade gap shrank unexpectedly in March, the government reported Friday, but economists said the improvement was probably temporary.

The Commerce Department said imports outstripped exports by $62 billion, down from a revised $65.6 billion in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the trade gap would rise to $67 billion. The gap is now down nearly 10 percent since setting a record in January.

Part of the decline came from as oil prices fell from February but oil has since resumed its climbed and hit a record high above $75 a barrel last month. The value of oil imports in March tumbed 11 percent from February, the report said.

Total imports edged down 0.8 percent last month while exports grew about 2 percent.

Meanwhile, China, the country with the largest trade imbalance with the United States, Friday reported a larger-than-expected rise in its overall trade surplus for April. The U.S. trade gap with China jumped 12.5 percent in March, to $15.6 billion.

Jay Bryson, international economist for Wachovia, said that the decline in the trade gap, while a nice surprise, will probably be short-lived. Some of the reported decline came from seasonal adjustments made by government economists, he noted.

"The bottom line is our imports will resume their climb and the trade gap will revert back to the high 60's," he said. A gap above $70 billion by this summer, which would be a record, wouldn't be much of a surprise, he added.

Much of the decline came from a 2 percent rise in exports, to a record $116.7 billion, the fourth all-time high for exports in the last five months. The increase occurred despite a $377 million drop in the value of exported civilian aircraft and parts, one of the largest and most volatile export categories.

A decline in the value of the dollar has made U.S. exports more competitive overseas while the economies in some key trading partners are improving. Exports of industrial supplies and materials grew by $1.2 billion in the period.

"Our exports are doing well, because growth is doing well elsewhere," said Bryson.

He said the strong trade report would be enough to cause the government to raise its estimate of first-quarter economic growth to 5.1 percent from the original estimate of 4.8 percent. A rising trade deficit subtracts from gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy.

But Bryson cautioned that reports on other sectors of the economy could also affect the next GDP reading, due out May 25.

The dollar sank to a fresh one-year low against the euro and an 8-month low against the yen in early trading Friday, although the dollar picked up some of its lost ground against the euro following the report.

At least some of the decline in imports in March came from seasonal adjustments, according to figures in the report.

For example, there was a seasonally adjusted $751 million decline in the value of autos and auto parts in March, the largest drop outside of energy imports.

But excluding seasonal adjustments, the report showed a $428 million increase in auto and auto parts imports, with only one major auto producer, Korea, seeing a decline in their exports to the United States.

For more on the economy and what it means for you and the markets, click hereTop of page

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