NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street hasn't expected much from General Motors for some time - but for second-quarter results due Wednesday, the Street is finally looking for a profit. Moreover, some analysts think there were be more black ink to come.

While GM reported a profit in the first quarter, excluding special items, it came in a restatement of results, and analysts had been expecting a loss of 44 cents a share. It was the first quarterly profit, excluding items, that GM (Charts) had reported since 2004.

For the second quarter, analysts surveyed by First Call expect a profit of 52 cents a share, compared to a loss of 56 a share a year earlier. Estimates run from 18 cents to $1.11.

GM has been grabbing headlines as it holds talks about a possible alliance with Nissan (Charts) and Renault, two overseas automakers that already own stakes in one another and share a CEO. There has even been talk, denied by both companies, of a possible link-up with Toyota (Charts).

But the future of GM still rides on when the company can start making money again on its core North American auto operations.

Even the analyst who has the most bullish forecast for GM's profitability thinks that the company will post a narrow loss for those key operations. David Healy, analyst with Burnham Securities, thinks that loss will total $50 million, even though he's projecting an overall profit of $1.11 a share, excluding items, or about $625 million.

But Healy also thinks that recent cost-cutting efforts could push North American auto operations into the black in the second half of the year. The company recently had 35,000 workers take early retirement or other buy-out packages, allowing it to close excess capacity and cut costs sooner than expected.

Those packages will result in a huge charge in the second quarter and thus an overall net loss, but are key for returning to profitability. "Right now North America is the only thing that matters," Healy said. "The earnings this year are heavily backloaded because the cost savings are heavily backloaded."

Healy points to other bright spots as well. "Their big new SUVs are selling surprisingly well and they're killing everyone else in the sector who has nothing new. They've also decided to stop losing their shirts by selling to Hertz and Avis."

GM officials have declined to give guidance about when it might return to profits, but the list of things they said they needed to wrap up before issuing a forecast is getting shorter. If the company hints at guidance on Wednesday, that could be a nice boon for the stock.

Efraim Levy, the auto equity at Standard & Poor's, agreed that the cost-cutting in North American operations is the key to determining if the company is back on the the road to solid profitability. "It's fine that they're growing in China and that Europe has improved. But as a sign of health, North America is the heart of GM," said Levy.

Still, Levy is not as optimistic as Healy about longer-term prospects.

Levy said the strong sales results for large SUVs and the coming introduction of large pickups could help results in the short term, but he thinks those segments will be ultimately be pressured by high gasoline prices. "You just wish they had this success in a different category," Levy said.

And Levy said the company's long-term profit outlook will take a hit when it completes the sale of 51 percent of its GMAC finance unit. The sale was prompted by GM's junk bond status, which made it more expensive to raise needed capital. "I understand what motivates the transaction, but they're giving away a critical component of profits," said Levy.

Bob Schnorbus, chief economist for J.D. Power & Associates, is in the optimistic camp. Schnorbus said that the staff and cost cuts will likely allow GM to take down the break-even point for North American operations to about 4 million U.S. vehicles sold a year. The company sold 4.4 million vehicles in 2005, down from 4.6 million the year before.

And Schnorbus thinks the worst of its sales decline may be over. "We see the volume for the market as a whole increasing, so even if their share slips down a bit more, their total sales should hold," he said.

But Schnorbus said that even if the bleeding has stopped at GM, it's a long way from being in a healthy situation. "We're still on thin edge of what's a real profit," he said. "I think we have further restructuring to go."

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