Wall Street awaits a wave of reports
The last week of summer will be a busy one for bulls and bears not on the beach: numbers are due on GDP, consumer spending and monthly employment.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investors worried about whether the economy is headed for a soft landing or a flat-out recession will get plenty of clues in the week ahead - assuming those investors are checking in from the beach.

"There are a lot of interesting things going on next week," said Barry Ritholtz, fund manager and CEO at Ritholtz Capital Partners. "It's a shame no one will be here to pay attention to them."

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Ritholtz was joking, but there's no question that the last week of August is typically among the most thinly traded of the summer, with many bulls and bears on the beach.

What could make next week deviate a bit from the norm is that the closely watched monthly employment report is due Friday, said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke. As a result, more people will be sticking around, he said.

Those that aren't vacationing through Labor Day can look forward to what has become a notoriously bearish week on Wall Street, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

For six of the last nine years, the Dow industrials have lost an average of 2.9 percent in the last week of August, according to the Almanac, while the broader S&P 500 index has lost 2.7 percent. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite has lost an average of 2.4 percent in the week.

The weakness is largely seasonal - late summer is typically brutal for the bulls. Why? Less people trading less shares makes the market more volatile and more susceptible to news that is perceived as negative.

Add in this year's increased worries about an economic slowdown and you have a tough week on tap.

Such fears weighed on stocks last week, following weaker-than-expected reports on existing and new home sales.

Jobs, inflation reads due

Although the week ahead may be light on volume, it brings no shortage of reports on the economy, particularly later in the week. (see chart for details)

The August Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board is due Monday, while Tuesday brings the minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Wednesday brings a revision on gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, which is expected to show an improvement from the initial disappointing reading.

If the report should come in even better than expected, that could be a comfort to investors, as it "could indicate that the economy is slowing, but not all that dramatically," said Sheldon.

But a GDP report that merely meets estimates may not be much comfort, said Ritholtz, amid ongoing fears that the housing market's slump is going to drag on consumer spending and send the economy into a recession.

Thursday and Friday bring a number of reports on the manufacturing sector as well as a pair of reports closely watched by the Fed.

Earlier this month, the Fed paused its more than two-year-old interest-rate hike campaign and investors are hoping that it will not have to start raising rates again in the fall.

In its statement, the central bank basically forecast that slowing economic growth should take the edge off rising inflation. Should that prove not to be true, the fear is that the Fed will have to start raising short-term interest rates again to counteract that, even as the economy is slowing.

Thursday's reads on personal income and spending in July will be key, and in particular, the report's inflation component, the so-called core PCE index, which strips out volatile food and energy.

"The PCE report will get a lot of eyeballs," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies. "We're as concerned about inflation-friendly data as much as anything."

The PCE index is expected to have risen at a 2.5 percent annual rate, further moving above the Fed's presumed target of a 1 percent to 2 percent rise.

While the PCE report could jolt the markets, "I think people will be more focused on the jobs report," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

Friday's August employment report is expected to show that employers added around 125,000 jobs to their payrolls, up slightly from the 113,000 added last month.

If the payrolls number comes in a lot weaker or a lot stronger than forecast, the stock reaction could be big, Ritholtz said. Short of that, the market may have to "wait until after Labor Day for the fireworks to really begin."

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.