Oil rebounds from 2006 low
Inventory report says distillates, used to make heating and diesel fuel, show surprise decline; OPEC dithers on production cut.
By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices moved off this year's low Wednesday after the government said supplies of distillates, used to make heating oil and closely watched ahead of winter, showed a surprise decline.

U.S. light crude for November delivery gained 80 cents to 58.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil had traded up 3 cents just prior to the report's release after hitting $57.24 earlier in electronic trade, the lowest since December 19, 2005.


Despite the advance, oil prices have slid more than 25 percent since hitting a record trading high of $78.40 in mid-July.

In its weekly inventory report, delayed by one day due to the Columbus Day holiday, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels last week. Analysts were looking for a rise of 800,000, according to Reuters.

But distillates fell by 1.6 million barrels, while gasoline supplies gained by 300,000 barrels. Analysts were looking for a 100,000 barrel build in distillates and a 500,000 barrel gain in gasoline supplies.

Oil prices have bounced around the $60 level for over a week, gaining on OPEC talk of a 1 million barrel a day production cut and falling as the cartel waffles on the details.

Crude closed at a record low for the year Wednesday as the market became less convinced OPEC has the discipline and solidarity to actually take a million barrels a day off the market.

OPEC ministers have agreed oil markets are oversupplied by around one million barrels per day, but have yet to decide on whether to make a reduction from a notional 28 million-bpd production ceiling or from actual supply of nearly 27.5 million bpd in September.

Emergency meeting?

They are also divided over whether to hold an emergency meeting to formalize what would be the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' first output cut since 2004.

Qatar's oil minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, told Reuters Wednesday he expected the cut to come from actual output. He said a statement could be issued within two or three days, or the group could meet sometime between Oct. 16 and 18.

But so far OPEC has failed to take official action.

"Speed is of the essence more than anything else - dithering to date has cost them credibility," Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters. "Actual output will of course have to fall to have an impact on actual prices."

Questions have also been raised over how much output OPEC could manage to cut.

Some nations, such as Algeria and Libya, are producing well above their quotas and have long flouted OPEC guidelines. Analysts say they are unlikely to abide by any new rules.

Others, such as Venezuela and Nigeria, are thought to be producing well below their quotas due to civil strife or a lack of investment in oil fields, although neither country admits it.

Analysts say these counties won't reduce their actual output but rather lower the amount they say they are producing on paper.

Saudis watched

EIA said Tuesday that OPEC will likely only be able to muster a production cut of around 500,000 barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia, by far OPEC's largest producer and one of the few countries that analysts think would significantly cut production, has so far been silent on the issue.

"It's going to come down to what the Saudis are going to do," Andrew Lebow, a broker at Mann Financial in New York, told CNNMoney.com.

Lebow didn't have high hopes a major production cut was coming soon, as the Saudis know expensive oil could ultimately undermine their market by encouraging conservation or alternatives.

"Do they really want to defend $60 oil," he asked. "I think not."

Several factors have contributed to the oil price decline, including an end to the summer driving season in the U.S., fewer bad hurricanes than forecast, a relative easing of tensions in the Middle East, brimming stockpiles, and concerns over slowing economic growth.

Stocks of oil majors BP (Charts), ExxonMobil (Charts), ConocoPhillips (Charts) and Chevron (Charts) and Royal Dutch Shell (Charts) rose modestly in early trading.

-Reuters contributed to this report

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OPEC's big gamble

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.