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Boo! Confidence posts surprise drop
Decline in gas prices not enough to boost sentiment; forecasts were for an increase.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Lower energy prices and record highs for blue chip stocks weren't enough to lift consumer confidence in October, a business research group reported Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence index fell to 105.4 from a revised 105.9 in September. Confidence is closely watched since it tends to influence consumer spending, which in turn fuels about 70 percent of the nation's economy.

The research group said its survey found that consumers were mixed on current business conditions and had a less favorable view of the job market. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the index would rise to 107.8.

"It's a relatively decent number, Lynn Franco, director of group's surveys, told CNNMoney. "It continues to indicate what we've seen for a few months is that economic growth has moderated and would likely to continue into 2007."

Franco said that reports of a slumping housing market are likely taking a toll on consumer confidence, but that has been balanced off by the lower gasoline prices and the series of record highs for the Dow recorded this month.

The National Association of Realtors has reported a year-over-year decline in the median price of an existing home sold in each of the last two months, after more than 11 straight years of gains in that price measure. The Census Bureau has reported an even sharper drop in new home prices.

Franco said that the survey found a nearly 30 percent drop in those looking to sell their homes from the high level in March. But those looking to sell are a relatively small part of those surveyed, 2.9 percent in the recent survey of 5,000 households, compared with 4.1 percent in March. So she doesn't think that housing worries are the major factor keeping confidence from rising higher.

"It really boils down to what is happening in the economy and the labor market," said Franco. "We know that employment growth hasn't been robust."

The government's job report for October is due Friday morning, and economists forecast the economy added 125,000 jobs this month after a disappointing gain of only 51,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.6 percent.

Consumers' view of current business conditions fell to 124.7 from 128.3 in September. But the index measuring expectations for six months out rose to 92.6 from 91.0.

Consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" fell to 25.8 percent this month from 26.2 percent in September Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" rose to 22.0 percent from 20.9 percent.

Those expecting more jobs to become available in the coming months edged up to 15.2 percent from 14.7 percent, but those expecting fewer jobs also rose to 17.5 percent from 16.5 percent.

Meanwhile, consumers aren't banking on a tighter job market to help their paychecks. Those expecting their incomes to increase in the months ahead edged down to 19.6 percent from 20.2 percent in September.

A government report Monday showed spending by consumers rose only 0.1 percent in September, even though lower gasoline prices and higher earnings put more money in consumers' pockets. And a report last week showed gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation's economy, growing at the slowest pace in more than three years.

Still, other readings show consumer spending has held up relatively well this year, although Wal-Mart Stores (Charts), the nation's biggest retailer, has been plagued by weak sales recently. Saturday it reported sales at U.S. stores open at least a year, a closely watched retail measure known as same store sales, rose a disappointing 0.5 percent in October, following a 1.3 percent gain in September.

Other major retailers report October sales Thursday. As a group, the big chains are forecast to post a 4.2 percent gain in same-store sales, down from a 6.3 gain in September.

Correction: An earlier version of the story states a jobs gain of 51,000 in August. CNNMoney.com regrets the error.

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.