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Allen Wastler Commentary:
Wastler's Wanderings by Allen Wastler Column archive

The jobs-number 'conspiracy'

Was it good? Was it bad? You can see a conspiracy in any number, if you try.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Numbers lie. Especially economic ones. But some of you already knew that.

And it's all a conspiracy.

Take the employment numbers Friday. The government reported that 92,000 jobs were added to U.S. payrolls. Its previous estimate of jobs created in September was revised from 51,000 to 148,000. And the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4 percent.

Despite our best efforts, the conservative conspiracy was apparent.

"I had to laugh at your story on job creation and unemployment," Miguel G. wrote to us. "How in the hell do you revise the number of jobs created in September from 51,000 to 139,000? (sic) Why does Bush even report the numbers if he's just going to change them a month later? Anything from his fanatical Christian government is pure lies."

Or was it a liberal conspiracy?

"Just curious if you'll be leading your newscasts off today with the new unemployment rate?" David W. flamed. "Our economy is good and it's about time you liberals in the media stop hiding that fact. Tell the truth on the economy and perhaps you'll gain more viewers."

Half-empty, half-full? You're tagged either way.

Either view is right. The employment report is actually made up of two different surveys ... one of employers (the payroll number) and one of households (the unemployment rate). Economists frequently debate the merits of the two and what they do and don't count. The payroll number doesn't reflect the self-employed all that well, say some. The household number doesn't reflect all the people who gave up looking for a job, say others. It's the stuff number-cruncher cage matches are made of.

There's a fight like this about every economic number:

The leading indicators are actually lagging.

The gross domestic product doesn't give the service sector its due.

Shouldn't food and energy be considered "core" to inflation calculations?

And on and on.

Numbers are tools, not absolutes. And they can be imperfect. Just as the screwdriver in your hand probably isn't the right thing to chisel out that nail. But that's all you've got, so you use it anyway.

The jobs report? It probably isn't absolutely right. And in this election season it is getting spun this way and that.

But I'm seeing a lot of "Help Wanted" signs these days. Sure, I see them at places like McDonald's, the local nail salon, and the mall retailers. ... so they probably aren't high-paying jobs. But they are jobs nonetheless.

So the jobs report, warts and all, is probably closer to right than wrong.

And the conspiracy? There isn't one, unless you count imperfection and hype.

Next? Let's go count some votes ....

_________________________________

Allen Wastler is Managing Editor of CNNMoney.com and appears on CNN's "In the Money." He can be emailed at wastlerswanderings@cnn.com. Top of page

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