Dodge may lose minivan crown to Honda

2008 Dodge Grand Caravan: A total redesign for the new model year has not helped lift Caravan sales numbers above last years, or above the Honda Odyssey's.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As 2007 comes to a close, Chrysler could lose its long-time bragging rights as the maker of America's most popular minivan.

Chrysler single-handedly created the minivan market segment with the Dodge Caravan and its close cousin the Chrysler Town & Country. The Caravan has been the top-selling minivan in the United States since its 1983 introduction.

But that run may be about to end. By the end of November, Honda (Charts) had sold 158,139 Odyssey minivans, according to data from AutoData. That was 2.3 percent fewer than Honda had sold by the same time last year.

But it was still ahead of the 154,824 Dodge Caravans sold in the same time frame. Caravan sales were down 21 percent compared to the number sold by the end of November in 2006.

Chrysler introduced a completely redesigned and improved version of the van this fall. Sales for 2007 have suffered in part because of the changeover to the new version, Chrysler spokeswoman Beverly Thacker said.

The company has been actively working to reduce fleet sales, she said, which also accounts for some of the drop in Caravan sales.

Sales of minivans of all types have been suffering as more buyers turn to crossover SUVs, vehicles that offer the look and most of the functionality of SUVs but with better handling, smoother rides and better fuel economy.

Both Ford (Charts, Fortune 500) and General Motors (Charts, Fortune 500) have back from the minivan market in recent years as they prepared to introduce large crossover SUVs.

Aside from annual score-keeping, recent sales numbers may mark a more permanent end to the Caravan's long role as the presumptive market leader in minivans, said Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for sales tracker Edmunds.com.

Even after the roll-out of the redesigned 2008 minivans, the Dodge Caravan has come close, but has not yet topped sales of the Honda Odyssey in any given month. Honda also made various improvements to its minivan for the 2008 model year, but the vehicle is not entirely new.

If current trends continue, the Caravan will not regain market leadership until spring, at the earliest, said Toprak.

But Chrysler may not allow the situation to drag on that long, said Tom Libby, an analyst with Power Information Network. The company may spend heavily on incentives over the next couple of weeks to make sure it retakes the lead before year's end.

The value of the marketing message - "America's best-selling minivan" - could warrant heavy spending, he said.

In terms of total minivan sales (Chrysler Town & Country and Dodge Caravan combined) Chrysler LLC remains the market leader by a wide margin. As of the end of November 2007, Chrysler LLC had sold almost 279,000 minivans. That's nice, but it doesn't ring with consumers.

"It's similar to the F-150 for Ford," said Libby.

Ford markets the F-150 as "America's best-selling pickup." General Motors actually sells more of the Chevrolet Silverado and nearly identical GMC Sierra combined, but that's a harder concept to work into an advertising tag line.

Chrysler is under new management, however, since its takeover by Cerberus Capital Management.

"They may not be as interested in marketing clout as prior management," said Libby.

Chrysler's Thacker would not comment on the company's marketing plans or say whether the company was particularly concerned with sales rankings.

Chrysler introduced completely new versions of its closely-related Chrysler and Dodge branded minivans this fall. The new vans have a more angular appearance, a variety of improvements and an option the company calls "Swivel 'n' Go seating," which allows the second-row seats to be turned 180 degrees to face the third row.

For now, the redesign seems to have done more to help sales of the Chrysler Town & Country than those of the Dodge Caravan. That may be due to the fact that, along with redesigning the vans, Chrysler LLC also discontinued production of a smaller version of the Dodge Caravan. For the 2008 model year, customers can only get the larger long-wheelbase Grand Caravan.

The Chrysler Town & Country was not offered in a short-wheelbase version before and it has beaten year-ago numbers in both of the past two months. In fact, Chrysler sold slightly more Town & Country minivans in those months than Caravans.

But Dodge has long been Chrysler's volume brand, and it will be up to the Caravan to rise to the top, said Libby.