Stocks set for lower open

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were poised for a lower open Thursday as investors took in a string of weak retail sales reports and awaited a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke amid growing fears of a U.S. recession.

Wall Street managed to bounce back from a string of miserable sessions on Wednesday, lifting the Dow and S&P 500 more than 1 percent. But futures were down at 7:39 a..m. ET.

Bernanke is due to speak at 1 p.m. about financial markets, the nation's economic outlook and Fed policy in response to those issues. A number of top Wall Street economists have written notes this week suggesting the U.S. economy could already be in recession, prompting calls for deeper rate cuts from the Fed and for Congress to pass some sort of fiscal stimulus.

One factor sparking recession worries is generally weak retail sales seen in December. No. 1 retailer Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) reported that December sales at stores open at least a year, a closely watched measure known as same-store sales, rose 2.7 percent. That was near the high end of the company's earlier guidance and better than the 1.8 percent forecast of analysts surveyed by sales tracker Thomson First Call.

But the company warned about its fourth-quarter earnings, saying results would be "pressured."

Other retailers are expected to report weak December sales and earnings in the make-or-break fourth quarter. First Call's consensus estimate is that sales at other major retailers rose an average of only 0.2 percent for the crucial holiday shopping period.

Wal-Mart rival Target (TGT, Fortune 500), which has already warned of weak December sales, announced late Wednesday that longtime CEO Bob Ulrich will retire May 1, although he will hold on to the chairman title until the end of fiscal 2008.

Among the early reports from retailers, teen specialty retailers Hot Topic (HOTT) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) both reported drops in same-store sales that were close to forecasts. But both still said fourth-quarter earnings would be below earlier guidance.

One retailer reporting better-than-expected results was wholesale club Costco (COST, Fortune 500), which posted a 7 percent gain that topped the forecast of a 5.7 percent rise. But much of that gain from a 16 percent jump in overseas sales and higher prices for its gasoline sales. U.S. same-store sales excluding gas rose a more modest 4 percent.

Consumers could also curb spending if they have trouble dealing with large credit card balances in a tighter credit market. One warning sign of that came when credit card issuer Capital One (COF, Fortune 500) said late Wednesday that it would not meet its 2007 profit forecasts due to a rise in loan delinquencies and the weakening economy.

NYSE Euronext (NYX) could move after a report in The Wall Street Journal said the company is in talks to buy the American Stock Exchange.

The Journal also reported that Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, two financial firms battered by mortgage problems, are seeking billions in additional capital from foreign investors.

Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) kicked off earnings season late Wednesday reporting a rise in net income that was helped by a one-time gain from the sale of its packaging and consumer businesses. Shares rose 4 percent in after-hours trading on the news.

In global trade, most Asian markets fell. European stocks fell after the Bank of England and European Central bank both held interest rates steady.

Oil prices fell below the $95 a barrel mark. The price of a barrel of light, sweet crude for February delivery lost 76 cents to $94.91 a barrel in electronic trading.