Summer's here. So are higher gas prices

But 15% runup in past 3 weeks pales in comparison to 2008's surge, and isn't likely to match the record highs.

EMAIL  |   PRINT  |   SHARE  |   RSS
 
google my aol my msn my yahoo! netvibes
Paste this link into your favorite RSS desktop reader
See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close)
By Julianne Pepitone, CNNMoney.com

Find Your Next Car


For Money's upcoming Best Places to Live list, we'd like to know: What's most important to you when choosing where to live?
  • Good jobs
  • Affordable homes
  • Top schools
  • Low crime
  • Things to do

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With the Memorial Day weekend and summer driving season approaching, motorists are facing a familiar trend -- surging gasoline prices.

But while pump prices have increased nearly 17% over the last 24 days, and are likely to go even higher over the coming weeks, experts don't foresee anything like the record levels of 2008.

"An overall increase is not abnormal for this time of year," said Bob van der Valk, a fuel-pricing analyst with 4Refuel Inc. in Lynnwood, Wash. "It will follow a similar trend, just starting at a lower price than 2008 did."

He also cited recent refinery fires in California, Pennsylvania and Illinois, curtailing supply, as a reason for the current spike.

The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline increased Friday to $2.391, up 2.9 cents in a daily survey compiled for motorist group AAA. That's the 24th consecutive increase, during which the price of gas has increased 34.3 cents, or 16.7%. All 50 states and the District of Columbia have regular unleaded gas prices of $2 and higher.

But the surge in prices is somewhat relative. The average price is down 38% from the $3.831 per gallon AAA reported one year ago. And it's down $1.72 or 41.8%, from the record high of $4.114 set last July 17.

Gas prices could increase to $2.41 this weekend, said Tom Kloza, publisher of Oil Price Information Service.

"That would be an astounding 50% increase from November," he noted. "We have never seen a similar percentage increase from winter to spring."

As a result of the comparatively lower prices, van der Valk said he expected Americans will drive more this summer when they take time off.

That wasn't the case last year, when prices at the pump were volatile. Soaring prices curtailed travel, and by July 17 gas prices had risen already 35% year-over-year.

Consumers finally began to see a reprieve in August. But late summer brought Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, and gas prices shot back up in September, reaching more than $5 per gallon in some parts of the country. On Sept. 16, gas prices started declining amid weakening demand as the global economic slowdown took hold.

Barring major hurricanes or other unforeseen events, van der Valk expects the average price to peak around $2.75 by Labor Day. California and other West Coast states could see prices spike as high as $3, he added.

Kloza doesn't see quite as big a spike.

"If you believe in $3 gas, you believe in the Dow going back to 10,000," he said. "Fundamentals are the only way prices will move higher -- and I don't see that."

Instead, Kloza predicted average national prices will peak this year around $2.50 --and "we may be really close" to that level, he said.

And then, the cycle heads downward again.

"It could go below $2 by Christmas," van der Valk said. "People will say, 'Great, the gas companies are giving it away again.'" To top of page

Features
They're hiring!These Fortune 100 employers have at least 350 openings each. What are they looking for in a new hire? More
If the Fortune 500 were a country...It would be the world's second-biggest economy. See how big companies' sales stack up against GDP over the past decade. More
Sponsored By:
More Galleries
10 of the most luxurious airline amenity kits When it comes to in-flight pampering, the amenity kits offered by these 10 airlines are the ultimate in luxury More
7 startups that want to improve your mental health From a text therapy platform to apps that push you reminders to breathe, these self-care startups offer help on a daily basis or in times of need. More
5 radical technologies that will change how you get to work From Uber's flying cars to the Hyperloop, these are some of the neatest transportation concepts in the works today. More
Sponsors
Worry about the hackers you don't know 
Crime syndicates and government organizations pose a much greater cyber threat than renegade hacker groups like Anonymous. Play
GE CEO: Bringing jobs back to the U.S. 
Jeff Immelt says the U.S. is a cost competitive market for advanced manufacturing and that GE is bringing jobs back from Mexico. Play
Hamster wheel and wedgie-powered transit 
Red Bull Creation challenges hackers and engineers to invent new modes of transportation. Play

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.