Crude oil: Rounding up the bad guys

The theory: Foreign oil producers are pouring money into the futures markets to boost prices for their lucrative export business. Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito, Calif., speculated in a recent note to clients that big oil producing nations such as Iran, Venezuela and Russia could be pushing oil prices higher by making outsize bets in the crude futures markets. He points to the low margin requirements on commodities futures contracts - an investor can borrow as much as 93% of the contract price - and says a producer that makes more than $10 billion a month selling oil could easily drive crude prices higher simply by plowing $200 million into futures contracts.

Reality check: Despite the obvious political conflicts, many market players doubt the big oil producers would be so brazen. "I'd be very surprised to see them doing that in this atmosphere," says Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader who edits the Schork Report energy and trading newsletter in Villanova, Pa.

NEXT: Supply and demand