PORTFOLIO TALK Winning Picks From the Vermont Hills
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(FORTUNE Magazine) – In an age when computers can screen stocks this way and that, portfolio manager Christopher Martin, 45, relies heavily on Yankee shrewdness. In the five years through September 30, his $500-million Sentinel Common Stock Fund of Montpelier, Vermont, has given investors a total return of 184%, according to CDA Investment Technologies of Silver Spring, Maryland, vs. a 150% return on Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Martin, who thinks the bull market has a way to go, relishes working far from Wall Street. ''With our management style, being somewhat removed is to our benefit,'' he says. In a recent interview with FORTUNE's Andrew Serwer, Martin talked about his back-to-basics approach and the stocks he likes right now: How would you describe your investing methods? Straightforward. We've always looked for value, and we aren't Johnny-come- latelies to this view. I like companies that are financially sound, whose stocks have good dividend yields. Price-earnings multiples are important too, as well as favorable earnings surprises. We also look at sales and book value. We look over a very large number of stocks and then boil the list down to 1,000 and rank them. But we don't just go out and buy the ones with the highest rank. Many times our judgment overrides the numbers. What are some of your recent judgment calls? One area where we are trying to be a bit contrarian is in cyclical companies in capital-intensive basic industries. We don't try to predict the stock market or the economy, but I would guess that before this business cycle is over we will finally see some sustained growth. My best guess is over the next 12 months we will see more of this muddling through, with slow increases in GNP, maybe an uptick in inflation but not much, and interest rates settling. After that things could get going, and we want to be ready when that happens. For instance, we have been eyeballing some railroad stocks. Aren't they sidetracked? To a degree, since railroads are so sensitive to the economy. One company with potential is Union Pacific. It is doing a good job of restructuring, with both write-offs and diversification, and we like its proposed acquisition of Overnite Transportation, a trucking company. We think Union Pacific is going to produce higher rates of return in coming years. The stock has a low price- earnings multiple and a reasonable dividend yield, and the company has an able new president in Drew Lewis. We like CSX for pretty much the same reasons: a low P/E and successful restructuring. But these stocks are not our main interest. Which ones are? Generally we have been investing in consumer-oriented companies that do well in a period of disinflation, such as those in the food, tobacco, beverage, and retailing businesses. Whirlpool is a consumer stock we have always liked. The company has good management and good earnings momentum, and the stock has a low multiple. And Whirlpool has just had a terrific earnings surprise, reporting $1.51 a share in its latest quarter when security analysts were looking for $1.25. For the year we see the company earning $5.50, up 10% from 1985. And although we don't like to invest on this basis, we do hear takeover rumors. May Department Stores is another consumer-oriented stock that looks good. May's acquisition of Associated Dry Goods was a smart move. Last year the company earned $2.69, and this year we see it earning $3.05. A retailer like May will also benefit from tax reform, since consumers will have more money to spend. Do you see any other tax reform plays? All our drug stocks should do well because the companies have higher tax rates than they will have under the new tax bill. We like Eli Lilly and American Home Products, and we see a bright future for Warner-Lambert. Its growth has been below the industry average, but it is finally getting it all together with some new products. We see earnings accelerating over the next several years. What about financial service stocks? We have done well with the Bank of Boston. It's really a money-center bank now, and it has prospered in a region of the country, New England, that until recently was not going great guns. Bank of Boston has gone after niches, like lending to the entertainment business. The stock has a low multiple of seven, and a decent dividend yield, and sells at a low ratio to book value per share. The future looks bright and the company should earn $4.80 this year, vs. $4.23 in 1985. We have also done well with Morgan Bank, a quality blue chip. Isn't the stock expensive? As bank stocks go, it is; you're paying for the quality. But relative to the rest of the market, Morgan has a low P/E of nine. That's because the investing public is concerned with bank loans to Third World countries. These are real concerns and we don't belittle them, but the fears help to hold down the stock price. Defense stocks have been out of favor recently. Any bargains there? The common view is that the defense buildup is over, which may be true. We do, however, like Raytheon, which is strong in military electronics and missiles, and has an $8-billion backlog of orders. Management has done a fine job, keeping the company virtually debt free and producing steady, stable growth. Raytheon's Beech Aircraft subsidiary hasn't done so well, but the company should achieve overall earnings growth of 11% or 12% a year.