(FORTUNE Magazine) – TO HEAR THEM tell it, presidential candidates high-tailing out of snowy New England for Super Tuesday's Southern primaries expect nothing but sunshine and success. It's going to be a little more complicated than that. Politics always is, and the South itself is much less the monolithic region it once seemed. A dozen years ago a so-called New South, flush from a decade of economic growth, helped put Jimmy Carter in the White House, then in 1980 traded him in for Ronald Reagan, all with a high degree of unanimity. Today there are three New Souths, with a trio of widely varying economies: the prosperous coastal states; the sagging Middle South, which has been dependent on agriculture and traditional industry; and the flattened oil states. Two other trends make life complicated for strategists. Across the South urban areas are growing rapidly, along with rings of affluent white suburbs where Republicans sprout faster than kudzu vines. At the same time, the economic gap between blacks and whites is widening. The candidates had better figure out how to approach this variegated landscape. No one has been elected President without the South since 1952. Democrats still outnumber Republicans more than 2 to 1, but that can be misleading. Democrats control the legislatures of all 13 Southern and border states, and hold about two-thirds of the region's House and Senate seats, but Republicans have six governorships. And except for 1976, when Carter narrowly beat Gerald Ford, the South has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. Eight years of Reagan and robust growth in the South's major metropolitan areas have transformed the Republicans from a party of upstarts to one of considerable power within the Southern establishment. Lee Atwater, who grew up in South Carolina and is now George Bush's national campaign manager, says he became a Republican in the 1970s because he was ''anantiestablishment-type guy,'' and the Democrats were an ''elite group that went around wearing three- piece suits.'' Atwater has yet to be sighted wearing a three-piece suit. For Democratic candidates, the Southern primaries present a special challenge: The results on Super Tuesday, March 8, may not necessarily predict what voters will do in November. Take 1984. Apparently a high percentages of blacks, union members, and liberals turned out in the Democratic primaries to clinch the nomination for Walter Mondale. But in November non-union blue- collar whites, alienated by Mondale's liberal agenda, joined more affluent Southerners to reelect Reagan. When the votes are counted across the three Souths, Jesse Jackson could well emerge as the major Democratic beneficiary. He is expected to win virtually all of the black vote, about 25% of the total. But some political consultants think he could push his percentage higher. His corporation-bashing populist gospel might appeal to some blue-collar or poor whites who feel economically disenfranchised. And he may well attract a sprinkling of white liberals. Beyond Jackson, the Democratic race in the South splits into two contests: the battle for moderate votes between Tennessee Senator Albert Gore Jr. and Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, and for liberal votes between Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis and Illinois Senator Paul Simon, assuming Simon scares up enough money to stay in the race. Gore has the advantage of being a Southerner, though as the son of a Tennessee Senator he was raised in Washington. He has also worked the region harder and husbanded more of his money for Super Tuesday. Although his voting record has been more liberal than that of most Southern Democrats, Gore has positioned himself as a moderate who believes in deficit reduction, free trade, and a strong defense. If he doesn't win or place on his home turf, the Tennessean will be history. Gephardt's protectionist message may appeal to many Southern Democrats, particularly blue-collar voters in hard-pressed regions. Says Arthur H. Miller, a political scientist at the University of Iowa who analyzed the Missouri Congressman's primary win there: ''Gephardt isn't just selling protectionism; he's selling patriotism. That may be bad economics, but it's good politics in Iowa and in the South.'' IN THE BATTLE for the liberal vote, Dukakis has the edge. His pitch as a pragmatic manager should sell in Florida, Texas, and Georgia. By contrast, Simon's self-portrait as a good old fashioned liberal eager to create expensive new government jobs programs has little appeal in the South. In any event, Super Tuesday will not serve the purpose for which Democratic strategists had designed it: to nominate a conservative who could sweep the South in November. Instead, from a crowded field Jesse Jackson is poised to emerge with a load of delegates. At the very least he will demand that his worker bill of rights, which includes a higher minimum wage, be included in the Democratic platform. If he pushes the party too far left, conservative Southern Democrats may once again abandon the party in November. ON THE REPUBLICAN side, Kansas Senator Bob Dole's fortunes depend mostly on Vice President George Bush's misfortunes. With so many states voting on Super Tuesday, Bush's advantage in money and organization cannot be underestimated. He also has a natural edge in the region's biggest state, Texas. But his support elsewhere is soft. In a January poll by Mason-Dixon Opinion Research, 27% of Bush supporters said they may switch candidates. If Bush looks weak, his lieutenants may not be able to hold their foot soldiers in line. Says Merle Black, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina: ''Southern Republicans support Bush not because they love him like they did Reagan, but because they think he's a winner. The more the Vice President falters, the more Southern Republicans will turn to Dole.'' Former Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson is the wild card. In Iowa he turned out 25,000 voters, half of his list of supporters. (Most candidates got about a quarter to the caucuses.) If he does this well across the South, he will clearly go to the convention with a large bloc of delegates. Some Republican strategists speculate that he might try for the Vice Presidency. At the least he would insist, like Jackson, that his social agenda be included in the platform. In the South his right-wing prescriptions may attract some votes. But they would certainly turn off many party moderates. Says conservative political consultant Kevin Phillips: ''The best thing the Republicans can hope for is that either Bush or Dole emerge quickly as the clear winner, and Robertson starts to lose leverage. Otherwise Bush or Dole will have to live with a Robertson-influenced platform. And that will be a real problem.'' What is the mood of Southern voters as they approach Super Tuesday? An economic tour of the three Souths pinpoints some political risks and opportunities: -- THE EAST COAST. From northern Virginia to the tip of Florida, the states along the Atlantic Ocean have boomed during the Reagan years. Companies, yuppies, and retirees have rushed to make fortunes or simply enjoy them in a climate of warmth, hospitality, and low taxes. The region has outpaced the U.S. in growth of population, personal income, and jobs. Unemployment averaged 4.9% in 1987, vs. 6.2% nationwide. Unlike many parts of the South and the country, the region's major problem is not creating jobs, but managing sometimes runaway growth. By now the shiny new skylines and busy thoroughfares of the Southeast have become part of the mythology of the New South. The Orlando area, which has thrived on defense spending and Disney World, has 61,000 hotel rooms, second only to New York City. In Palm Beach, a dozen or so new industrial and office parks are abuilding. Atlanta has become the South's financial and service hub. North Carolina boasts Research Triangle Park -- an Information Age citadel, bounded by Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill and encompassing Duke University, the University of North Carolina, and North Carolina State University. Virginia's Norfolk-Hampton Roads area has profited from Reagan's buildup to a 600-ship Navy. If Bush fails to win here, he might as well forget it. He is strongest in Florida, where his passionate backing of the Nicaraguan contras is very popular among Hispanics, who make up 8.3% of the population. He also enjoys widespread support throughout the region's growing suburban areas. Bob Dole's best state in the region is North Carolina, home of his wife, former Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole. She has helped him build a solid organization there. The Kansas Senator also has an edge in rural areas. Pat Robertson's flock is spread all across the South, but the Norfolk area, where the Christian Broadcasting Network he founded is headquartered, should be a stronghold. In the Democratic race, Gephardt will have a fairly narrow market for his protectionist trade message, mostly workers in the Carolina and North Georgia mill towns. Jackson will focus on those whom prosperity left behind in the inner cities and rural areas. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis is pinning his hopes on the east coast of Florida, the Atlanta area, and North Carolina's Research Triangle, where many Northerners have settled and his ''Massachusetts miracle'' sells well. -- THE MIDDLE SOUTH. Stretching from Alabama and Mississippi northward to Tennessee and Kentucky, the Middle South is just beginning to recover from crises on the farm and in smokestack industries. Farmers' incomes are rising because of higher government subsidies and increased exports. The catfish business is booming thanks in part to Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy, who got the military to double its purchases. ONCE ALMOST exclusively a steel town, Birmingham, Alabama, has turned itself into a bustling financial, transportation, retail, and biomedical center. Huntsville, Alabama, has built a robust high-tech community around its Marshall Space Flight Center. Memphis, Tennessee, has become a booming distribution center. Big new Japanese auto plants are boosting the economies of Tennessee and Kentucky. Still, unemployment remains above 20% in some rural areas. Timber has been hurt by Canadian imports and the slowdown in homebuilding. Ports like Mobile, Alabama, that once thrived on commercial shipbuilding have gotten little Navy business. In Kentucky tough times have hit coal and tobacco and even the price of race horses. Jackson ought to run best here because the Middle South has the South's greatest concentration of blacks. In Mississippi, for example, blacks make up 40% of the population and 65% of Democratic voters, according to party chairman Ed Cole. Also strong in the region is Gore, whose Tennessee roots make him home folk. Though nobody expects Dukakis to win, he could draw some surprising support. Says Cole: ''What he has done with welfare reform in Massachusetts appeals in Mississippi, where so many people are on welfare and our system has been so weak.'' In the Republican race Bush has the strongest organization, while Dole continues to suffer from ragged staff work. Robertson's fundamentalism could serve him well in this region where Bible-thumping thrives. By concentrating on small rural counties where a few carloads of churchgoers can make a difference at the ballot box, Robertson hopes to pile up lots of delegates. Says conservative political expert Kevin Phillips: ''Robertson is a specialist in guerrilla warfare, and he's already outmaneuvered a trail of gray-flannel Republican generals in Michigan, Iowa, Florida, and Hawaii. In the South, it's conceivable that he could win 14% to 16% of the popular vote but as much as 22% to 24% of the delegates.'' If he does, many of those will be in the Middle South. -- THE OIL STATES. The precipitous drop in oil prices in the mid-1980s pushed bankruptcies and unemployment to all-time highs in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and parts of Mississippi. Now the worst seems to be over. West Texas crude has been selling for $16 a barrel recently, up from a low of $10.77 in the summer of 1986. That's hardly the $28 oilmen were getting in 1985, when nearly 2,000 rigs were, as oilmen say, turning right, drilling down. But the price increase has been enough to raise some rigs from the graveyard. THE COMEBACK has been most visible in Texas. The oil bust forced the industry to reduce costs sharply. Now surviving companies are making the most of rising prices. The recovery is beginning to seep through to the nonoil economy. Says economic forecaster M. Ray Perryman of Baylor University: ''Today, 60% to 70% of Texans think they're better off than they were last year. That's a big change.'' But pockets of pain and anger persist. In downtown Austin, which was heavily overbuilt, the vacancy rate for commercial real estate remains over 30%. In Houston homeless people roam the city. Says George S. Mitilineos, a local marine engineer: ''This is still a desperate place.'' Even among the newly upbeat, attitudes have changed markedly. Says Perryman: ''Eight years ago we were leading the nation in new jobs and we didn't need the federal government. Now we're leading in bankruptcies and the feds are seen as critical partners in promoting the fortunes of the state.'' Many Texans vigorously support an oil import fee, which would help boost domestic oil prices, and increased federal spending on research, education, and the environment. Says Texas sociologist Stephen L. Klineberg of Houston's Rice University: ''The big story here is the end of the simplistic Reagan shibboleth that government is the problem.'' Louisianans have had more trouble bouncing back. The state's economy and budget are dependent on the oil and gas business, particularly offshore drilling, which is still on the rocks. State revenues have dried up along with oil and gas profits, forcing a cutback of many government services. The New Orleans Symphony has shut its doors. Says New Orleans Congressman Bob Livingston, a Republican: ''A lot of people are still hurting b-a-d.'' Oklahoma is also struggling. Says Oklahoma City political consultant Mike Hammer: ''Oklahomans are obsessed with their stricken economy.'' Because the state's oil wells are deeper and drilling is more expensive than elsewhere in the region, Oklahoma's energy business has yet to bounce back. Farmland prices, which plummeted as much as 40% since 1984, are just beginning to rise. Wheat prices have stabilized, and beef and poultry profits are up. The state has also attracted a few new companies, including Kimberly Clark, which will build a $150 million paper products plant near Tulsa. But the days when a lending officer from now bankrupt Penn Square Bank gamely sipped champagne from his cowboy boot are long gone. Pain in the oil patch should help the Democrats, particularly Gephardt, who supports an oil import fee. Gore says he would consider a fee as part of a national energy policy. Dukakis opposes the notion on the grounds that it would trigger protectionist retaliation, and devastate the import-dependent Northeast. The Massachusetts Governor, with his Boston accent and streetwise manner, might seem a bad fit for the region. But he does speak Spanish, which will help in South Texas. IN THE REPUBLICAN race, Dole's support for an oil import fee should, theoretically, give him a leg up on Bush, who is against it. But while Dole's stand might play in Louisiana and Oklahoma, Bush's ties to Texas, where he made a fortune in oil and ran successfully for Congress twice, are too strong. Says George Christian, former press secretary to Lyndon Johnson: ''Most folks deem him to be a Texan who understands the oil business, and doubt he'd do anything to hurt them.'' Despite recent economic shocks, oil patch pols believe the Republicans will win Texas in November, particularly if Bush is the nominee. Says Christian: ''Bush is very definitely the strong favorite to carry the state.'' Surprisingly, Oklahoma is also likely to stick with the Republicans. Says an Oklahoma Democrat: ''In 1984 the joke was that everyone voted for Reagan on the way to the bankruptcy courts. The state hasn't picked a Democrat for President since LBJ.'' Troubled times, however, may send Louisianans back to their once strong Democratic roots. Says former Louisiana Senator Russell Long, a Democrat: ''After the primaries, the race here is up for grabs.'' In the general election in the South, many analysts doubt any Democratic candidate would run a strong race. On the Republican side, Bush would be the toughest competitor. If the economy keeps moving, however slowly, most political oddsmakers believe the Republicans should win most of the South in November. But if growth stalls, Dixie could put a Democrat back in the White House.