Seems like old times
By - Alan Farnham

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Want to feel uneasy? Just look at the way the U.S. guzzled oil in the first quarter of this year. Compared with a year ago, demand for all petroleum products increased 5.4%, and for gasoline 4%. At the same time domestic production dropped -- so Americans didn't slake their thirst with home-brew. Instead they quaffed more from overseas. The U.S. now imports 35% of its crude - vs. 31% in the first quarter of last year, some of which has to pass through the shooting gallery of the Persian Gulf. The bill runs about $36.5 billion a year, a fifth of the U.S. trade deficit. While the U.S. will ultimately become even more dependent on imports, new data from the University of Texas at Austin shows that new drilling in existing U.S. wells is turning up more oil than had been predicted. In response the Department of Energy has raised its estimates for domestic production in the year 2000 from 5.4 million barrels a day to six million. By comparison, production in 1987 was 8.3 million. Discoveries of brand-new fields are also running ahead of predictions. Meanwhile, the OPEC cartel, which has been meeting in Vienna with non-OPEC producers, has not yet been able to get much agreement on curtailing worldwide production. Should OPEC finally succeed in getting an agreement, however -- and if it can enforce it -- the price of a gallon of gas could rise by 4 cents to 6 cents. Unfortunately, the public once again seems hooked on cheap oil. Noting that the fuel efficiency ratings for some of Detroit's big cars have actually fallen since 1980, Chris Cedergren of J.D. Power & Associates says, ''Big engines are in vogue again. The consumer wants power.''- A.F.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: TERRY ALLEN SOURCE: AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE CAPTION: DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS GROWS DESCRIPTION: Percent change of United States oil imports, total demand, U.S. production, December 1987 through March 1988; color illustration: gasoline can.