A BRIGHT STAR BEHIND A PASSING CLOUD
By - Joshua Mendes

(FORTUNE Magazine) – If you like endurance, consider Bristol-Myers. In 1987 the consumer products and drug company, known for such brands as Bufferin, Ban, and Clairol, celebrated not only its centennial but also 35 consecutive years of increased earnings. In the past 15 years alone, earnings growth and return on equity have averaged 15% and 21%, respectively. The company has little debt and is one of only 13 that get a triple-A credit rating from Moody's and Standard & Poor's. Says longtime follower Frederic Greenberg, a security analyst with Goldman Sachs: ''Bristol-Myers is a rare bird.'' Lately, though, the market has been treating it like a sparrow. Along with the entire drug group, it has fallen into neglect as investors focused on cyclical industries. Even within the drug industry Bristol has been overshadowed by companies with blockbuster products -- Merck with Vasotec and Squibb with Capoten, for example, both used to treat high blood pressure and heart disease. And then there is infant formula, a high-margin business that accounts for 12.6% of sales and an estimated 7% of earnings per share. In the past year states that subsidize purchases of these products by needy mothers have decided to take bids, a move that led Bristol and its competitors to cut prices. On top of that, powerful Nestle announced in July that it will elbow into the U.S. market. All these problems have clipped Bristol's stock. Before the market crash the stock fluctuated around $50 a share, and so far this year it has hovered just above $40 a share. That's only an 8% premium on the price/earnings ratio of the market as a whole, well below its usual premium. The stock is yielding 4%. Some of Wall Street's drug analysts say the price is awfully tempting. They believe investors have overestimated Bristol's trouble. First, the company and its competitors probably will steer clear of a major price-cutting war. Second, Nestle's likely product -- a soy-based formula for babies allergic to milk -- would compete with less than a quarter of Bristol's total formula business. Even in the unlikely case that Nestle grabs all of Bristol's market share in that segment, says Elizabeth Greetham of Eberstadt Fleming, the effect on the bottom line would be negligible. These analysts also believe investors have underestimated Bristol's potential in pharmaceuticals. In 1982 the company decided to build a major presence in this business. It has boosted R&D spending, restructured its sales force, acquired two biotechnology outfits, and consolidated its research into a new facility. The result: Bristol has emerged as the No. 1 U.S. maker of drugs to fight cancer and is a leader in antibiotic, anxiety, and cardiovascular medicines. Says George Michaelis, portfolio manager of the ) Source Capital Fund: ''If you're going to be in stocks, this is the kind you want.''