LIKE EASTERN EUROPE, AFRICA TURNS TO CAPITALISM AS THE PATH TO THE FUTURE
By Rahul Jacob

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Away from the glare of TV cameras that follow South Africa's Nelson Mandela, most of the 47 nations that make up sub-Saharan Africa are quietly jettisoning socialism in favor of economic liberalization. Benin, a tiny, formerly Marxist nation on the west coast, has decreed that the salutation ''comrade'' is no longer obligatory. Much of the push toward reform stems from the failure of central planning, and pressure from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the big sources of foreign aid. With Eastern Europe opening up, Africa now competes with it for the West's attention -- and investment. Says Michael Lofchie, a political science professor at UCLA: ''Africa could become very desperately marginalized in terms of aid and capital flows.'' The total debt of these countries is 69% of their combined gross domestic product (see chart). Their GDP adds up to $149 billion; General Motors' 1989 revenues were $127 billion. Here's how the economies of some of these countries stand.

WEST AFRICA -- Nigeria. GDP: $30.1 billion. Foreign debt: $30.7 billion. Pop.: 110 million. Per capita annual income: $290. President Babangida has authorized 100% foreign ownership of many industries, excluding petroleum and banking, among others. His government has already sold 30 companies, including a flour mill, and plans to sell about 70 more. Babangida is trying to move away from the OPEC-member nation's overdependence on oil exports. -- Ghana. GDP: $5.2 billion. Foreign debt: $3.1 billion. Pop.: 14 million. Per capita income: $400. Led by Flight Lieutenant Rawlings, Ghana has been a darling of the World Bank and IMF since it began economic reforms in 1984. Manufacturing output of textiles and aluminum products is up, providing some compensation for the drop in prices of cocoa, the main export.

EAST AFRICA -- Kenya. GDP: $8.6 billion. Foreign debt: $5.9 billion. Pop.: 23 million. Per capita income: $360. GDP has increased by about 5% annually since 1985, twice the sub-Saharan average. Kenya has long exported tea and coffee, but President Moi has pushed new exports like vegetables and textiles. -- Mauritius. GDP: $2 billion. Foreign debt: $860 million. Pop.: 1.05 million. Per capita income: $1,810. This small island in the Indian Ocean led by Prime Minister Jugnauth is Africa's Little Dragon. It established a processing zone that exports island-made textiles and watches, among other products. Foreign investors -- many from Hong Kong -- get tax breaks.

CENTRAL AFRICA -- Zaire. GDP: $6.5 billion. Foreign debt: $8.5 billion. Pop.: 33.6 million. Per capita income: $170. Zaire is a model for economic mismanagement. Foreign debt has almost doubled since 1980. President Mobutu's reported wealth: $5 billion.

SOUTHERN AFRICA -- Zimbabwe. GDP: $6 billion. Foreign debt: $2.7 billion. Pop.: 9.3 million. Per capita income: $660. Under President Mugabe, Zimbabwe has rewritten its investment code to entice foreign investors. Its main exports: tobacco and gold. -- Botswana. GDP: $1.8 billion. Foreign debt: $500 million. Pop.: 1.2 million. Per capita income: $1,050. Extremely well managed by President Masire, it has ridden out booms and busts in the market for its chief export, diamonds, by saving for lean times. The ongoing risk to foreign investors: politics. Nigeria's government recently survived a coup, civil war is continuing in Liberia, and Kenya is embroiled in factional dissent. Africans themselves are pushing for democracy and its benefits.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: SOURCE: IMF CAPTION: A CONTINENT'S CRUNCHING DEBT