GREAT GROWTH STOCKS, FOR A SONG
By WILLIAM E. SHEELINE

(FORTUNE Magazine) – It's been a rough ride for investors in growth stocks this year. While some of the best, like Wal-Mart Stores, Philip Morris, and Coca-Cola, are still within points of their highs, the rest have been hammered. They were dumped in the spring by investors who only had eyes for cyclicals, such as aluminum, steel, and auto company shares, which thrive in an economic recovery. Now, with the economy still sputtering, the romance with cyclicals has ended -- since June, aluminum stocks have fallen 13%, steel stocks 10.5%, and auto stocks 17.4% -- and investors are flocking back to their old friends. That investors are changing partners at midyear should come as no surprise. The pattern has repeated itself in each of the past two years. Both times, investors crowded into cyclicals early in the year because they wanted to catch a big expected profit improvement. Each time they were met with earnings disappointments, and their stocks sank. Much the same has happened this year: Though earnings for some cyclical companies will be up sharply, the sluggish economy has put a brake on many. So which growth shares will benefit most from investors' change of heart? Microsoft, say analysts, is a premier growth stock that was sold off for no good reason, so it should be among the biggest rebounders. The $2.8-billion-a- year software company saw its stock price fall 17% this year, from $88.75 to $73.63, even as the company posted an earnings increase of 47%, to $2.41 per share. ''In a terrible economy, this company has grown significantly faster than its competition and shall continue to grow at 25% to 30% a year,'' says Robert Stansky, manager of Fidelity's $1.5 billion Growth Company Fund. The stock sells for 20 times Stansky's estimate of earnings for calendar 1993 of $3.60 a share. The poor economy has hardly slowed the local area network (LAN) companies, which design and manufacture systems to connect personal computers to one another. Says Stansky: ''This is the one technology sector that is not subject to intense pricing pressure.'' Three leading companies -- Cabletron Systems, Cisco Systems, and Novell -- are trading at bargain prices, given their high growth rates. Stansky thinks each of these companies can increase earnings 25% or better during the next year. Yet the stocks have all come down from their highs. In the drug industry, even Merck, a star performer in recent years, has lost some ground. But analysts think there's better value elsewhere. Geoffrey Raymond, chief investment officer at Travelers Investment Management, likes Schering-Plough. His conservative estimate is that the company will increase earnings by 14% next year -- more if it continues to buy back shares. The stock sells for $60, or 14 times 1993 estimated earnings of $4.20 per share. That multiple is below the market's P/E of 15.5, based on estimated 1993 earnings, even though Schering-Plough's multiple has averaged a 16% premium to the market over the past five years. ''With its earnings growth, this stock should be selling at a multiple of 1.2 times the market,'' says Raymond. ''It's just significantly undervalued.'' Another bargain in health care is St. Jude Medical, a $210-million-a-year manufacturer of mechanical heart valves. The stock, which rose as high as $55.50 a share late last year, got caught in the widespread sell-off of medical product stocks early this year, falling to the low 40s. It was hit yet again this summer when the company announced that second-quarter earnings would be weaker than expected. Now the stock sells for only $30 a share. But John Tauer, who manages Piper Jaffray's Emerging Growth Fund, expects St. Jude's earnings to grow 16% next year. The stock trades for only 12 times his 1993 earnings estimate of $2.43 a share. While shares of Wal-Mart Stores continue to defy gravity, most retailing shares have taken a dive this year. Costco Wholesale, a fast-growing chain of wholesale clubs, has been hit especially hard, partly on fears that the market for this kind of outlet is saturated. Bo Cheadle, an analyst with Montgomery Securities in San Francisco, believes the market is wrong. ''I think this company has the best management and the best strategy in the industry,'' Cheadle says. Costco plans to continue growing in the West and in Florida, and to expand in the Northeast and in new small markets elsewhere. The stock, meanwhile, trades at $23, a 12-month low. At 20 times estimated 1993 earnings, Costco's P/E is only 1.3 times the market's, well below its relative P/E in recent years of 1.7. Cheadle expects earnings to increase 24%, to $1.15 per share, next year.