FALL ELECTIONS: IT'S THE ECONOMY, GOV!
By Louis S. Richman

(FORTUNE Magazine) – With baseball in limbo, this fall's best races will be in the 34 statehouse elections around the U.S. Pocketbook issues may decide the major battles, in which three Democratic and two Republican incumbent governors face their first electoral tests since 1990, when the U.S. economy was in recession. --California. Republican Pete Wilson faces an uphill battle against well- financed scion Kathleen Brown, daughter of former governor Pat. The % tarnished Golden State has lost 600,000 jobs since 1990 as the defense and construction industries tanked simultaneously. Pollsters say disenchanted voters are leaning toward Democrat Brown, the state's treasurer. But businesses applaud Wilson's overhaul of the state's onerous workers' compensation system; others like the way he led the speedy recovery from L.A.'s winter earthquake. --New York. Mario Cuomo is in the toughest reelection fight of his career, against obscure state senator George Pataki. Pataki has made the economy the campaign issue. Small wonder: The Empire State has lost over half a million jobs in four years, its tax burden on business is 75% above the U.S. average, and its bond rating is the nation's second-lowest. Cuomo, fighting back, recently signed a $1.5 billion business tax cut. --Texas. Governor Ann Richards faces off with another scion, businessman George W. Bush. But most Texans answer yes when this Democrat asks if they are better off than four years ago. Richards strongly backed Nafta, which is popular in the state. New businesses have diversified the employment base. Sports fans may strike out in frustration against Bush, principal owner of the division-leading Texas Rangers. --Illinois. Republican Governor Jim Edgar leads Democratic challenger Dawn Clark Netsch, the state's comptroller, 2 to 1 in polls. The economy is strong in the industrial heartland, and Netsch has turned off voters with her proposal to boost education spending with a $2.5 billion income-tax hike. --Florida. Democratic incumbent Lawton Chiles is presiding over a robust rebound. But Chiles, who has a lackluster record in luring new business to the state, could be vulnerable to a challenge from Republican Jeb Bush. Yet another son of the former President, Bush was the state's secretary for economic development.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: FORTUNE CHART / SOURCE: REGIONAL FINANCIAL ASSOCIATES CAPTION: ARE YOU BETTER OFF?