How to buy a politician, responsibilism on Wall Street, our sensitive government, and other matters. THE ODDS IN IOWA
By DANIEL SELIGMAN REPORTER ASSOCIATE Patty de Llosa

(FORTUNE Magazine) – $ A new political season is upon us, so your servant is once again wrestling with the Iowa Electronic Markets. As previously explained in this space, anybody on the planet possessing a computer, a modem, and a certain amount of betting money (anything from $5 to $500 will be accepted) can get in on the IEM action, where one "invests'' in various causes and candidates and where final prices -- i.e., just before voters go to the polls -- have rather consistently provided a better clue to political outcomes than have the public-opinion polls. Each investment is in effect a futures contract that pays off winners at $1 per unit acquired and leaves losers sorrowfully observing that their own units are now worth nothing. As one types in these words, he owns 849 units, spread over three different political contracts. The units were acquired at an average price of $.293, meaning that we invested $248.93 and will end up with a 241% profit if all three bets turn out to be winners. The profit is not exactly in the bag. Our three bets are on Ollie North to win the Virginia senatorial race, on George Pataki to beat Mario Cuomo in New York's gubernatorial sweepstakes, and on a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. At late September transaction prices, Ollie was being rated at 3 to 2 (which implies a 40% chance of his winning), Pataki was close to even money (50%), and the odds on the first Republican House in 39 years were 4 to 1 (20%). If those three events were statistically independent of one another, a fellow would have scant hope -- about a 4% chance, to be precise -- of winning all three bets. But, of course, the three outcomes have to be viewed as intimately related. The three bets were placed, admittedly wishfully, on different versions of the same underlying scenario: a Clinton- driven Democratic catastrophe. Scrounging around in the IEM marketplace, an imaginative bookmaker, not to mention the character who runs your office pool, could find numerous interesting bets being served up to the people. Along with its political action, the marketplace has always offered other intriguing financial gambles. Right now, for example, you can bet on whether Kmart's third-quarter earnings will exceed 27 cents per share (a proposition recently being rated at 3 to 1 against). You can also bet on which of three investments -- Disney, Time Warner, and the S&P 500 -- will generate the highest rate of return between August 19 and December 16. (In late September the S&P 500 was the favorite at 8 to 5.) In man-to-man betting, a parlay of Kmart, Time Warner (parent company of FORTUNE's publisher), and a George Bush Jr. win in the Texas gubernatorial race should pay off at a shade over 20 to 1. Hey, who needs the World Series?