(FORTUNE Magazine) – Black pepper "is the most important spice in the world," says celebrity chef Bobby Flay. "If I had to give up black pepper for Lent, I'd starve to death." What Flay and the rest of us probably haven't realized is that there is a global pepper shortage. Monsoons and political turmoil in Southeast Asia have had a terrible effect on this year's crop of Piper nigrum, the plant whose unripe berries are dried and ground to make black pepper. The price buyers pay for the spice is supposed to double to about $3 a pound.

But don't expect the onset of large-scale hoarding. It's not as though most families refill their pepper grinders or shakers regularly, carefully noting the price when they do. "Consumers undoubtedly will see higher prices on the shelf, if they notice, which they probably won't," says Peter Sayia, a black-pepper specialist with A.A. Sayia & Co., a spice broker based in Hoboken, N.J. And, notes Sayia, foods you buy that contain black pepper don't have enough of it to affect the price much.

Actually, the only folks likely to be hurt by the shortage will be the growers. "Pepper sustains the livelihood of millions of small farmers and traders, in addition to the thousands of others engaged in industries related to pepper production and processing," says K.P.G. Menon, executive director of the International Pepper Community, an intergovernmental agency in Jakarta that promotes the $633 million pepper business. While most farmers aren't yet in danger of losing their jobs, Menon says, they may see their already meager incomes drop.

--Tyler Maroney