The Numbers
By Douglas G. Elam

(FORTUNE Magazine) – We won't sugarcoat this. The FORTUNE Business Confidence Index continued to plummet this month, hitting -11 and tying an all-time low set in the fall of 1982. No doubt the recent terrorist attacks played a role in this, but it's not as if the economy was rosy before Sept. 11. Nevertheless, as the graph below shows, this index tends to bounce back--even after the Dow falls more than 22%. And with the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 2, perhaps this malaise too will pass.

--Douglas G. Elam

Fall 1982 Feel-good movies like E.T. dominate the box office, but the joy doesn't spread to business. The index hits a new low.

Fall 1987 DJ industrial average drops more than 500 points, or almost 23%, on Black Monday.

Summer 1993 The confidence index drops from 101 to 49 in the two quarters following the World Trade Center bombing.

November 1997 The index reaches an apex--understandably! Inflation is at a ten-year low, and the stock market keeps soaring.

September 2001 The economy is real sluggish before Sept. 11. But in the wake of the attacks, the index ties its record low.

The FBCI is based on a survey of financial executives at FORTUNE 1,000 companies. The index is compiled from responses to a series of questions about business conditions.