Six Economists Play The Dating Game
(FORTUNE Magazine) – Despite the name, the Business Cycle Dating Committee has nothing to do with the mating habits of investment bankers. As part of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the BCDC carries out duties that are far from romantic--it decides when recessions officially start and end. (That stuff about two quarters of economic contraction is for rookies.) The committee last met in 1992, when it declared the end of the last U.S. recession. Obviously, its moves are once again being scrutinized. Lately its six members e-mail one another to discuss indicators such as industrial production, employment, and real income. The board says it's waiting for "a significant decline in [economic] activity" before it declares a recession. Here are the men--yes, they're all guys--to watch. Cue Chuck Woolery! Ben Bernanke, 47 INTRODUCING ECONOMIST NO. 1 An expert on the Great Depression, Bernanke directs NBER's monetary program and chairs Princeton's economics department. HE'S SMART TOO! Bernanke is editor of the leading economics journal and has won a Guggenheim Fellowship. Martin Feldstein, 61 INTRODUCING ECONOMIST NO. 2 Harvard economics professor Feldstein has been the president of NBER since 1977. STOCKHOLM CALLING: At age 37 he won the John Bates Clark medal, awarded to the most promising economist under 40; one-third of its recipients win the Nobel Prize. Robert Gordon, 61 INTRODUCING ECONOMIST NO. 3 This Northwestern professor is an expert in business cycles, inflation, and unemployment. TURN-ONS: Gordon is an avid flier and has written many articles about the economics of the airline industry. Jeffrey Frankel, 48 INTRODUCING ECONOMIST NO. 4 His day job: teacher at Harvard's Kennedy School. His NBER connection: Frankel heads the International Finance and Macroeconomics program. HIS MANTRA: "The goal is to declare the dating of recessions definitively. Being speedy isn't a goal." Robert Hall, 58 INTRODUCING ECONOMIST NO. 5 Chair of the Dating Committee since 1978, Hall co-authored a best-selling macroeconomics text. TURN-ONS:The flat tax! Hall, a member of the Hoover Institution, co-wrote a 1981 Wall Street Journal article that started the flat-tax craze. Victor Zarnowitz, 81 INTRODUCING ECONOMIST NO. 6 Zarnowitz is a senior fellow at the Conference Board and professor emeritus at the University of Chicago. SMARTER THAN YOU: This forecaster extraordinaire has consulted for five federal agencies, including the U.S. Post Office and Energy Department. |
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