The Euro to the Rescue AMAZON
By Melanie Warner

(FORTUNE Magazine) – In late January, when Amazon announced it had made a profit in the fourth quarter of 2001, the press erupted in a chorus of hallelujahs. Wall Street analysts, many of whom had grown increasingly skeptical, gushed over a "blowout quarter." And some of Amazon's most animated critics personally congratulated Jeff Bezos. By week's end the stock had soared 23%, and Moody's upgraded its rating on the company's debt. Once again, the world loved Amazon.

What's easy to forget in this love fest is that just nine months ago this same chorus was singing dirges about possible bankruptcy. Those dire forecasts were overblown, and so too is the recent rainstorm of praise. The fact is, the weak euro--which lowered Amazon's interest payments on its debt by a full $16 million--accounted for a good bit of the company's surprise performance, rather than stellar operating margins or the triumph of the kitchen appliance business. Without this gain, as Amazon openly acknowledged in its earnings release, the company would have posted a net loss of $11 million.

To his credit, however, Bezos did deliver an honest live bottom-line profit. That's far more impressive than the "pro forma operating profits" he has been promising since last year, which exclude things like amortization and layoff-related charges and are better referred to as "earnings before all the bad stuff." This $5 million profit was the real thing--reached using those rigorous, albeit standard, accounting methods that include nasty items like interest expense.

Unfortunately Amazon isn't expected to post a repeat profit performance until the fourth quarter. And it isn't expected to have a full year of profitability until 2003 at the earliest. The good news is that the company has vigorously cut costs and improved efficiency. But to justify its $5.8 billion market cap, critics charge, Amazon should be able to consistently report annual profits of at least 2% to 5% of sales, something other retailers like Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and Home Depot do regularly. After losing $567 million last year, Amazon still has a way to go before it reaches financial adulthood.

Which makes the company's much ballyhooed fourth-quarter announcement a bit like being named the top salesperson for the month of March. By December, when bonuses are handed out, will anyone even remember?