(FORTUNE Magazine) – Watergate spawned campaign-finance reform and Iran-Contra sparked a major revamping of national-security agencies. But Enron will produce more change in D.C. than any scandal in 30 years--Congress will work on Enron-related legislation all year. Health-care industry lobbyist Fred Graefe is only half-joking when he says that Congress would be more likely to pass his pet measure if it were called the Enron Medicare and Prescription Drug Benefit Act.

Yet the result of this Enron contagion is less certain than headlines suggest. Here are the odds on the top Enron-related issues in Washington:

Accounting standards. Yes, new statutes will strengthen auditor independence and police ethics, but how it will all be executed remains controversial. Accountants, aligned with Republican regulars, want to keep government agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission away from auditor discipline. Lots of Democrats are eager for regulators to get their hands dirty. Then there's the touchy topic of how to account for stock options. Senators John McCain (R-Arizona) and Carl Levin (D-Michigan) insist that options be counted against profits, to stop managers from focusing on share-price appreciation. Corporate lobbyists have beaten back that particular reform for years and will likely prevail again. Odds that some kind of accounting measure will pass: 90%.

Pension reform. One change that seemed certain after Enron's bankruptcy was that employees wouldn't be allowed to keep more than 20% of their 401(k)s in their own company's stock. After all, a former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, Senator Jon Corzine (D-New Jersey), designed the proposal. But big- and small-business trade associations have apparently squelched it. Instead Congress will stick closely to President Bush's plan, which permits employees to sell company-matched shares after three years and allows more access to personalized investment advice. Odds of passage: 80%.

Campaign-finance reform. The House passed its version of this long-suffering measure, which still must, once again, weather the Senate. A filibuster is possible there. In the end, soft money will probably be banned for national political parties, but big dollars will still flow to candidates via pressure groups like the National Rifle Association and the Sierra Club. (Those donors could be anonymous.) Also, the Supreme Court could well strike down the bill's restriction on ads by outside groups that name candidates within 60 days of an election. Odds of passage: 70%. Odds of quick revision: same.

Energy bill. Environmentalists' opposition to Bush's plan to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge threatens the legislation in the Senate. But the President improved his chances when he secured support from such traditional Democrats as the Teamsters, who care more about jobs than about tundra. If ANWR drilling wins, Democrats will have to choose between labor and environmentalists, two fundamental constituents. Odds: fifty-fifty.