(FORTUNE Magazine) – With NBC's alarmist 10.5 miniseries and a UCLA geophysicist's claim to have cracked the Holy Grail of earthquake prediction (he says to expect the Big One in California this September), the lines between science and fiction are blurring. Here's what's really shaking. --Abrahm Lustgarten

1 in 10 Statistical probability that a quake of predicted size will hit SoCal in predicted time.

$1 billion Average amount earthquake repairs cost Los Angeles County each year.

9.5 Largest quake in recorded history (Chile, 1960).

4 Number of states in the U.S. that do not have earthquakes.

100% Chance that Alaska--the most earthquake-prone state--will have a 7.0 quake this year.

1 Number of scientists NBC consulted for 10.5.