The world at risk

(Fortune Magazine) -- 1. Venezuela President Hugo Chávez will use a strong victory at the polls to tighten his grip on power, amend the constitution to remove a two-term limit, and further marginalize the opposition, resulting in greater government stability in the short term.

2. Nigeria The ruling party will split into factions supporting President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar, increasing the chances of an inconclusive first-round vote in April 2007 elections.

3. Turkey The European Council will partially suspend negotiations with Ankara in response to Turkey's failure to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels.

4. Lebanon The current political crisis is likely to deepen before renewed dialogue between pro- and anti-Syrian factions can yield a unity government, and a tribunal to investigate the assassination of former President Rafik Hariri can be approved.

5. India The U.S. Congress will reconcile House and Senate bills to permit nuclear cooperation with India, avoiding any amendments New Delhi might consider unacceptable.

6. Japan Elected politicians will attack the Bank of Japan if it raises short-term interest rates in December, fueling fears of legislative efforts to curtail central bank independence by mandating an inflation target. Analysis by eurasia group