Deal grounded, Qantas is flying high

After a failed $9 billion private-equity takeover bid, the Aussie airline's stock is up, but its CEO is humbled.

By Eric Ellis, Fortune

(Fortune Magazine) -- A failed $9 billion takeover bid in May by a private-equity group for Australian flag carrier Qantas - which would have been the biggest deal in aviation history - seems to have humbled the airline's pugnacious CEO, Geoff Dixon. But Qantas itself is flying higher than ever.

Dixon had enthusiastically backed the buyout, which would have given him a $60 million payout. "If I had my time over again," he told Fortune in June in Sydney, "I don't think I'd do anything differently, except I would not want myself, or any of the senior management, to do a long-term contract deal with the bidders."

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The former journalist, who has run Qantas since 2001, was hammered by the market and the media for being too cozy with Airline Partners Australia, the private-equity consortium led by Macquarie Bank and David Bonderman's Texas Pacific Group. Two Qantas directors resigned over the failed bid. But Dixon holds on as boss, at least for now.

"Dixon blotted his copybook," says aviation analyst Brent Mitchell of Shaw Stockbroking in Sydney, "but the actual airline is doing pretty well." Mitchell echoes widespread market sentiment that Qantas is a lot better off without private-equity owners.

He points to Dixon's own forecasts, touted in the heat of battle, that Qantas's pretax profits would come in at about $1 billion for the fiscal year ending next June, up from $565 million on revenue of $11.4 billion in fiscal 2006. Those numbers prompted a rethink among key shareholders, which helped sink the offer. Qantas shares have since traded 10 percent higher. Dixon says a silver lining of the failed bid was that analysts "took a closer look at us, and they liked what they saw."

The Qantas CEO says he is "as focused as ever" on protecting the airline's 65 percent domestic market share, which has been buoyed by the booming Australian economy but is coveted by foreign-owned predators, including Richard Branson's Virgin Blue and the fast-rising-Singapore-backed Tiger Airways.

Tiger recently got approval to operate out of Melbourne, a move that has prompted a price war. Tiger CEO Tony Davis says that he is "determined to make Tiger Airways a national carrier, and we'll be entering a lot of markets around Australia."

Abroad, Singapore Airlines has been lobbying Canberra to dismantle the lucrative duopoly Qantas has with United Airlines on the always-full flights across the Pacific to the U.S. "We are a very profitable legacy airline in a difficult industry," says Dixon, "and that has made us a victim of our own success."  Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.