NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Wall Street seems to expect a higher offer for ImClone
Systems Inc. (IMCL), and the company's shareholders certainly believe one is
warranted.
Although the company's largest shareholder - Chairman Carl Icahn - has yet to
state his feelings publicly.
Early Thursday, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) offered $4.5 billion, or $60 a
share, for the 83% of ImClone that it doesn't already own. But some major
shareholders of the New York-based biotech company are already registering their
expectations for a higher price, and they are feeling confident that the
billionaire investor is going to lead the charge for greater value.
"Bristol cannot have our stock at $60 per share," said Sam Isaly, managing
partner of asset manager Orbimed Advisors, which owns about 3 million ImClone
shares, or about 3.5% of the shares outstanding.
"But today's stock price action says that others will not sell at that price
as well," Isaly said.
Indeed, shares of ImClone recently traded up 38% to $64.25, nearly 7% above
the offer price, suggesting that Wall Street expects a higher offer. Bristol-
Myers shares were flat at $21.51.
The two companies co-market cancer drug Erbitux in North America, but it is
sold outside North America by Merck KGaA (MRK.XE) of Germany. Erbitux, with 2007
global sales of $1.3 billion, is approved to treat colorectal as well as head
and neck cancer, and will be filed for lung-cancer approval later this year.
In a conference call earlier Thursday, Bristol-Myers refused to comment about
potentially raising its bid, but noted that it believes the $60 price is a "full
and fair offer" and represents its "best thinking."
Despite those comments, the New York-based drug maker didn't rule out a higher
offer and it is clear that some movement on price may be necessary to close the
deal.
"I think that the $60 price is probably a reasonable starting point for
negotiation," said Patrick Lee, a partner with hedge fund Palo Alto Investors,
owner of about 860,000 ImClone shares, or 1% of the shares outstanding, at the
end of March.
Lee said he doesn't have a specific price in mind, but that the offer doesn't
incorporate the full value of Erbitux's expansion into treating other cancer
types or the company's robust pipeline.
"As a standalone entity, the stock price could have doubled from $40, but that
assumes several years of execution and some risk as well," Lee said. "So it will
probably be somewhere in between."
Isaly is a bit more aggressive in his expectations.
"I would accept $80 per share, but I am not sure that I would take less," he
said.
Although institutions make up the majority of ImClone's shareholder base, the
company's individual holders also will be heard.
Charles Berner, an ImClone shareholder who has owned the stock since its 1991
initial public offering at $14 a share, also believes that the Bristol offer
undervalues his long-term expectations for the company.
"I think that $65 to $70 will be more like it," Berner said of his
expectations for the deal.
He believes that Bristol wants to insure it has access to the follow-up
version of Erbitux that won't enter pivotal trials until the first half of 2009,
but it is expected to be safer, with less-frequent dosing than Erbitux.
Unlike with Erbitux, ImClone owns all the rights to the follow-on and intends
to keep them, a point that has been cited in the past as an impetus for Bristol-
Myers buying ImClone outright.
Notably, Berner believes that Germany's Merck may want to have a say in the
matter and could make an offer for ImClone
"They have way too much to lose and have contributed tremendously to [
Erbitux's] trials and marketing success worldwide," he said.
Regardless of the end results, ImClone shareholders seem to be in capable
hands with Carl Icahn being the likely leader of negotiations with Bristol-
Myers.
Icahn entered the picture for ImClone after the company failed to sell itself
over a seven month period in 2006 - following the ordeal he was named chairman
and he ousted the former management.
"By reputation, he is someone that is very active and very experienced in
negotiations," notes Lee.
-By Thomas Gryta, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2053; thomas.gryta@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-31-08 1216ET
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