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Tech: Proceed with caution
Cost cutting, not demand, is still driving earnings. The tech funk isn't over yet.
April 17, 2003: 6:49 PM EDT
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If you just scan the headlines of some of this week's major tech earnings reports, you'd think the sector was finally back on track.

Microsoft and Intel both beat expectations for sales and earnings, for example. But when you look closer at these reports and those from other techs, there still are few signs of improving demand. (For Justin Lahart's more bullish view on tech, click here.)

Guidance is still muted

Intel Chief Financial Officer Andy Bryant went out of his way during the company's conference call to say he was not yet predicting a broad recovery for tech.

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Motorola
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And when discussing Intel's market share losses to rival Advanced Micro Devices in the flash memory chip market in the first quarter, losses that occurred because of an attempted price hike by Intel that backfired, Intel President Paul Otellini said that the company would do what it takes to win back share.

Translation? Intel still doesn't have pricing power in flash memory and AMD should watch its back.

In the case of Microsoft, the forecast for fiscal 2004, which begins in July, was uninspiring. The company said it is not expecting a big economic rebound to spur a pickup in corporate information technology spending.

As such, if you take the midpoint of Microsoft's new guidance for fiscal 2004, the company is expecting only 3 percent earnings growth and 4.5 percent sales growth. Not go-go growth.

Storage hardware leader EMC reported better-than-expected earnings Wednesday morning and said that earnings for its second quarter would be a penny higher than estimates as well. But EMC is also getting the job done mainly by lowering expenses.

Its second-quarter revenue forecast was a hair below consensus estimates. Sales are expected to increase 4.5 percent from a year ago.

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"Things are stabilizing, but there is still not a change that would suggest a major new spending cycle in tech," said David Joy, capital markets strategist at American Express Financial Advisors.

And Motorola, the second largest maker of cell phones in the U.S., reported just a 2 percent gain in handset sales from a year ago, despite an 18 percent increase in shipments. Consumers seem to be shunning higher-end phones in favor of lower-priced models.

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Nokia, the world's largest handset manufacturer, echoed those comments when it reported earnings on Thursday. Cell phone sales in the first quarter were only up 1 percent from a year ago. Investors were excited that Nokia's profits are holding up better than Motorola's, but as long as the economy remains lousy, sales growth for both companies won't be as high as it could be.

Another factor that can't be overlooked in the latest tech euphoria is that many of the companies that have been reporting solid results have been ones with international exposure, i.e., an ability to benefit from the weaker dollar.

That was the case with IBM and Intel, which both get a majority of their sales from overseas markets. But many smaller tech companies won't see an impact from a stronger euro and yen.

To be sure, tech has probably bottomed. But the easy money has been made in the sector with the Nasdaq up more than 25 percent from its early October lows. In order for the entire sector to have a sustainable rally, companies are going to have to report signs of burgeoning demand. Those signs simply aren't there yet.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.