NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Investors are hoping to see prospects for sales growth from Hewlett-Packard when the company releases fiscal second quarter results on Tuesday.
They'll likely be disappointed.
HP, which celebrated the one-year anniversary of its merger with Compaq on May 3, has been struggling to generate revenue growth as corporations continue to hold back on tech purchases. Analysts expect HP to post sales of $17.7 billion, a 2.6 percent decline from a year ago.
Any optimism for stronger than expected sales were probably quashed last week after one of HP's main rivals, Dell Computer, said it still was not seeing an imminent uptick in corporate technology spending.
Dell reported first quarter revenues that were in line with analysts' estimates but provided sales guidance for the second quarter that was a bit lower than expected.
Can HP fix the enterprise?
But earnings growth has not been a problem for HP (HPQ: Research, Estimates), as the company has been able to successfully cut costs since completing the Compaq merger. HP is expected to report a profit of 27 cents a share, compared to 19 cents in the same period last year.
Investors will be most eager to see how much progress the company has made in its PC and enterprise divisions, two of its weakest businesses. The company eked out a small profit in its PC segment in the first quarter but HP recently lost the global market share lead to Dell.
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And earlier this month, HP announced that it was restructuring its enterprise division, which includes sales of servers and storage systems to corporations. This business segment has yet to make a profit since the merger was completed.
Robert Cihra, an analyst with Fulcrum Global Partners, said it will be important for HP to show that losses are narrowing in this division, with the hopes that it might be able to turn a profit within the next few quarters.
HP has made some significant headway in the services business during the past few months however, inking some high-profile contracts such as a 10-year $3 billion outsourcing deal with Procter & Gamble. And its printer business is the most profitable part of the company.
Weak guidance shouldn't crush the stock
But given Dell's sales guidance, along with sober statements about near-term tech demand made by Intel CEO Craig Barrett and IBM chairman Samuel Palmisano in analyst meetings last week, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if HP winds up posting better-than-expected earnings on weaker sales.
That's what Richard Chu, an analyst with SG Cowen & Co., is predicting with earnings estimates of 28 cents a share and a sales projection of $17.5 billion. "I don't have high expectations for revenue gains from HP in this environment," said Chu.
In its first quarter, HP beat earnings estimates by a penny and missed on the top line. The company also gave sales guidance for the second quarter that was lower than what analysts were hoping for.
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As a result, the stock was punished the next day, plunging 15.5 percent. Could that happen to HP again?
Analysts currently expect HP to post $17.4 billion in sales for the third quarter. If HP gives guidance that is below this estimate, the stock could get hit...but probably not too badly.
Cihra said that expectations were much higher for HP in the first quarter than they are now, so a revenue miss this quarter shouldn't lead to a massive sell-off.
And even though shares of HP are up nearly 12 percent since the Nasdaq hit its lowest point of the year on March 11, the stock has lagged competitors Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates), IBM (IBM: Research, Estimates) and Lexmark (LXK: Research, Estimates) during the rally. HP is also much cheaper than most other hardware companies, trading at only 14.5 times earnings estimates for this fiscal year and at less than one times expected sales.
For this reason, Matt Kelmon, president of asset management firm Kelmoore Investment Co., said he bought some HP stock on Friday and his firm now owns about 500,000 shares. "Earnings aren't going to be blockbuster for HP. But it's cheap and the downside is minimal."
Analysts quoted in this story do not own HP and their firms do not have investment banking relationships with the company.
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