PALO ALTO, Calif. (CNN/Money) -
I write, you complain. It's a lovely partnership.
William H. really set the tone in my in-box with this missive about my column questioning the recent bull run: "Your most recent e-mail contained more bull than the current market. Skip the philosophy and give us some intelligent predictions instead. Should we put money into this market at this time or not?"
William, I'm not going to tell you what to do. I make observations, you invest. (There was, however, some advice in my scribblings. Namely, that it might be a good time to take some winnings off the table.)
The usual enemies of Microsoft replied to my suggestion here 11 days ago that there was a lot that was right about Mr. Softee (MSFT: Research, Estimates). Microsoft's stock has underperformed the rest of the market, and I suggested the situation might reverse itself in coming months.
"Microsoft is a habitual criminal which has stolen or bullied almost everything it has," writes Neil R. "There has never been a Microsoft innovation of any importance. Now that PCs are a commodity item, the only way Microsoft can keep inflating its profits is by strangling its own golden geese."
Then there's this one, from Dan K.: "You forgot to mention Linux and OpenOffice. In case you've been hiding under a rock, those are the two apps that are going to suck the air out of Microsoft in the next couple years."
Both software applications he's referring to are so-called open-source products, in which developers share free code with each other, a bad trend for the leading supplier of operating systems. Having gotten out from under my rock, here's my prediction on that, Dan. In their souls, companies don't like free things.
Folks will have to pay for Linux, eventually. Microsoft will find a way to cash in. Not convinced? Follow what's going on with the tiny software maker in Utah, SCO Group.
More to the point, so far my call isn't working. Microsoft's shares are flat since their May 30 close. The Nasdaq composite index is up about 2 percent. Oh well. This isn't a trading column. Check back in late summer.
Clearly, this is going to be the season of tech mergers, as I suggested even before Oracle announced a bid to acquire PeopleSoft. A few of you have ideas about mergers you'd like to see.
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Alan K. suggests: "Wouldn't Dell's working relationship with Lexmark lead to an acquisition? Dell needs a reliable printer and can add credibility to the Lexmark brand. Earthlink is going to be absorbed by some firm. Why doesn't Yahoo! acquire Earthlink? Also, what about Cisco buying up Juniper? Wachovia Bank may have a bigger appetite."
Hmm. Sticking to the tech ideas, I like the idea of Cisco-Juniper, but I doubt Juniper would sell. Dell buying Lexmark is interesting, but I suspect that relationship actually will last only as long as it takes Dell to figure out how to make its own printers. Yahoo! buying Earthlink? SBC (Yahoo!'s broadband partner) might have a thing or two to say about that.
Finally, D.B. couldn't understand why I quoted cartoonist Garry Trudeau in my column on questioning the bull market. "What possible reason led you to pick him for a quote on investing and what exactly did he say in the quote which is worth my consideration?"
I'll just let Bob A. answer that question: "Excellent verbiage of Trudeau quoted effectively and timely by you today, Adam," he wrote. "Let's hope intellectual, inquisitive and reasonable financial minds have multiplied over the last few years."
I couldn't agree more, Bob.
Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.
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