NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Ever since last week's disappointing employment report and Intel's cautious earnings guidance, a buzz has been growing that this bull market has stalled. And after the boom and bust of the past nine years, I can certainly understand why investors would be cautious.

But I think that a critical examination of the economy, the stock market, and the tech sector, in particular, argues for maintaining a strong commitment in favor of long-term growth.

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If history is any guide, this bull market is less than half way through its run. Following a recession and a full-scale bear market in which the Dow falls at least 20 percent, there's typically a rebound that lasts two years or longer. Over that period, blue chips double, and certainly manage gains of at least 80 percent. Tech stocks do even better.

Since the bull market began nearly a year ago, however, the Dow is up only 41 percent. The more volatile Nasdaq is up nearly 60 percent. But after recent slippage, culminating in Tuesday's drop below 2000, the Nasdaq has given back all its gains since the beginning of the year.

So why do investors think the market is stalling? And how serious is the problem?

One big reason for investor pessimism is the intense focus on employment numbers. It's true that job creation isn't as robust as was projected. But that may be less significant than it seems.

Job creation always lags an economic upturn. And high productivity allows companies to delay hiring back workers they laid off during the slump. The result, however, is that corporate profits rise more quickly thanks to restrained labor costs.

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In addition, recoveries are likely to last longer because pressure for higher wages, which can be inflationary, is slower to develop. That's certainly what key economic variables now appear to be forecasting.

Since August, 10-year Treasury note yields have fallen by half a percentage point to less than 4 percent, while inflation continues at less than 2 percent. Numbers like those normally fuel a booming stock market. And they should stay that low as long as there's little upward pressure on wages.

Worry over first-quarter earnings is another big concern. And those concerns were sharpened when Intel trimmed its earnings guidance after the market close on Thursday.

It's entirely possible that some companies' first-quarter results may be disappointing. But those results need to be evaluated in the context of the recovery as a whole.

Intel (INTC: Research, Estimates) is in the midst of a powerful cyclical recovery, and earnings are expected to show way above-trend gains this year and next. The company's reduction in first-quarter revenue projections reflects unevenness in the demand for chips, as some sectors are recover faster than others.

But the overall news for the semiconductor industry is quite bright. Corporate capital expenditures are expected to pick up, and sales of some chip lines are projected to grow 18 percent this year.

Moreover, Texas Instruments (TXN: Research, Estimates) actually raised its first-quarter guidance on Monday. The demand for TI's more specialized chips, used for cell phones and other consumer electronics, remains quite strong.

If you can get past worrying about quarter by quarter results and focus on longer term trends, top semiconductor stocks still look good. Overall, the industry is projected to grow earnings at an annual rate in the high teens over the next five years.

Intel's projected five-year annual growth rate is only 15 percent. At a current $27.60, the shares trade at 22.4 times estimated 2004 earnings.

In this environment, the more attractive choices may actually be higher-valued stocks, such as Texas Instruments and Applied Materials (AMAT: Research, Estimates), which makes semiconductor-manufacturing equipment.

Both those companies are projected to outpace the sector, growing earnings at 20 precent a year. At $29.86, TI trades at 31.4 times 2004 estimates, while Applied Materials carries a 26.2 P/E.

Those prices may seem a bit steep -- but remember that large earnings gains this year and next could bring those P/Es down fast. Based on projections for next year, Intel trades at a 19 P/E; Texas Instrument at 23 and Applied Materials at 18.

That, in fact, is the real explanation for the market's current stall. As the bull market moves from its first phase, characterized by a rapid rebound in earnings, to its second phase, powered by core growth potential, share prices may look as though they've run ahead of themselves.

But as long as you still believe the long-term outlook is on track, share prices still have plenty of room to run.

Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Sign up for free e-mail delivery every Tuesday and Thursday of Sivy on Stocks.