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Dell on deck
Cisco failed to shake the tech sector from its funk, so now investors turn their eyes to Dell.
August 12, 2004: 9:56 AM EDT
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Now it's Dell's turn.

The world's largest personal computer maker will report its fiscal second-quarter results after the bell on Thursday.

Will he be smiling on Thursday?  
Will he be smiling on Thursday?

Given the shocking warning from Dell rival Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates) Thursday morning, uninspiring sales guidance from Cisco Systems (CSCO: Research, Estimates) and a sales warning from National Semiconductor (NSM: Research, Estimates) on Tuesday, investors will be paying even closer attention to Dell for clues about the state of the technology sector.

"I'm on the edge of my seat waiting to see what the numbers will look like," said Knox Fuqua, manager of the AAM Equity fund, which owns Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates). "The numbers should be strong but investors are all a little edgy here."

Dell has already raised earnings guidance for the quarter. As such, analysts now expect the company to report a profit of 31 cents a share, up from 24 cents a year ago.

But because Dell did not also lift its sales guidance last month, analysts interpreted this as a sign that the company was benefiting from lower component costs and a favorable tax rate, not a surge in business spending on Dell's products.

Since Wall Street is most worried about whether corporate demand for personal computers, servers and other high-tech hardware will remain healthy in the second half of this year. So investors are likely to zero in on Dell's top line number and guidance for the third quarter.

The consensus sales estimate for the second quarter is $11.72 billion, a 20 percent increase from the same period a year ago.

For the third quarter, analysts expect Dell to report revenues of $12.51 billion, an 18 percent jump from last year and nearly 7 percent sequential increase. Les Santiago, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, said that he expects Dell to reaffirm this estimate as well as the consensus third quarter earnings target of 33 cents per share.

Santiago thinks that some of the concerns about a slowdown in corporate demand are overblown, and that Dell should continue to benefit from a pickup in spending from small and medium sized businesses.

All's well with Dell . . . but Wall Street knows that

It isn't a surprise to many tech followers that Dell has held up better than most of its competitors. To that end, Dell's stock has been relatively flat this year while many other large-cap techs have suffered double-digit percentage declines.

So a solid quarter and bullish guidance might not be enough to get investors excited about the tech sector as a whole.

Dell's stock hasn't been battered like other large cap techs this year.  
Dell's stock hasn't been battered like other large cap techs this year.

"Even if Dell does well and raises its forecast, will it matter? It seems like a lot of other companies are feeling the effects of a slowdown," said Thomas Carpenter, an analyst with Hilliard Lyons. "Dell is clearly executing better than any other company out there."

So Dell would probably need to do more than boost its sales targets. Wall Street will also want to hear some reassuring signs about overall tech demand. Since Dell also has more consumer exposure than Cisco, investors will also be hoping the company gives a bright outlook for the critical back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

But if Dell simply indicates that it is gaining market share (both in the U.S. and internationally) and keeping costs down then that would be seen as a sign that the environment is only good for Dell.

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Given the company's ultra-conservative nature, investors shouldn't hold their breath for an enthusiastic macroeconomic forecast from the company.

"The market will take any good news it can wrap its arms around so if Dell offers some encouragement that might mark a short-term bottom for tech," says Adam Adelman, senior technology analyst with Philippe Investment Management, an institutional firm that owns Dell. "But it has to say some positive things about the spending environment, which isn't likely since there is no incentive to be overly optimistic."

Inventories under the microscope

Santiago says that Dell, because of its just-in-time business model, is one of the few tech companies able to preserve its profit margins even when hardware sales wane. So slumps in demand usually allow Dell to take quick advantage of lower component costs.

Along those lines, investors will also be keeping a close watch on Dell's inventory levels.

Rising inventories at other tech giants, including Intel and Cisco, have worried the market. The fear is that companies are possibly building up too much inventory in the face of slowing demand. And if they are left with unsold goods, they might either have to dump them at less-than-desired prices or write down the value of these assets.

Dell typically does not hold as much inventory as many other tech companies. Nonetheless, inventories did increase 30 percent sequentially in its fiscal first quarter.

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So if Dell's inventory increases again, the hope is that the company will tell Wall Street that the increase is justifiable because hardware demand remains robust -- contrary to what the market believes.

"What is the economy doing? That's the biggest question on everybody's mind," said Fuqua. "If the economy gets going than inventory will take care of itself quickly."

But as Carpenter sees it, the market is so jittery, it would be more reassuring if Dell did not report another spike in inventory.

"The climate now in tech is shoot first and ask questions later," he said. "Even if Dell says an inventory increase is due to demand for back-to-school and holidays, it will give investors cause for concern."

Analysts quoted in this story do not own shares of Dell and their firms have no investment banking ties with the company.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.