Forget Bernanke. Earnings are key
Now that the latest Fed rate hike is out of the way, corporate profits could surprise - again.
By Nelson D. Schwartz, FORTUNE senior writer

(FORTUNE) -- The biggest question mark now for Wall Street isn't higher interest rates - they're already factored in - but rising earnings.

With the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate hike out of the way, the focus will quickly shift to second-quarter results, which are due out starting the week of July 10.

Right now, said research analyst John Butters of Boston-based First Call, Wall Street is expecting earnings to rise 12.3 percent in the quarter that ends Friday for most companies. That's a slight slowdown from the first quarter, when profits jumped nearly 15 percent.

Earnings expectations have been picking up recently, Butters said, noting that at the beginning of the second quarter, Wall Street was looking for growth of only 10.9 percent.

But strong results from big brokerages and continuing strength in the oil patch have whetted the appetite of investors for further gains.

Seven out of the ten industry sectors First Call tracks are on course for double-digit earnings gains, led by energy at 28 percent and basic materials at 17 percent. The laggards include health care, which is set to notch just a 3 percent gain, and consumer staples at 4 percent.

Earnings season will kick off with an announcement from Alcoa (up $1.35 to $31.90, Charts), the aluminum giant, and that should be a good indicator of how metals stocks perform. Later in July, GE (up $0.34 to $33.27, Charts), the closest thing to a proxy for the overall economy, weighs in, along with Pepsi (up $0.59 to $59.50, Charts), Gannett (up $0.70 to $55.90, Charts) and troubled newspaper publisher Tribune Company (down $0.03 to $32.40, Charts).

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department Thursday revised its figures for economic growth in the first quarter up to 5.6 percent from 5.3 percent, the fastest pace in two and a half years.

In the second quarter, economic growth will slow to an estimated 2.75 percent, according to Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist Richard Berner, but that doesn't mean earnings growth will ease. Foreign economies have been picking up speed, for one thing, and companies will continue to enjoy solid profit margins in the short term.

But with much of the recent earnings growth concentrated in a few sectors like energy, Wall Streeters now are watching to see if the gains broaden out to other areas, especially financials and consumer stocks, which have been only middling performers.

"As you go into the second half of the year, financials become the sector that's driving growth as opposed to energy," said Butters. "Rates have been rising for several quarters so I would assume the analysts have built that into their models."

One reason for optimism is that stocks are selling at fairly reasonable multiples - 14 times earnings over the next four quarters. A year ago, stocks were selling at 15.6 times forward earnings, which equals a 10 percent premium above today's prices.

That would suggest stocks still have a bit of room to run as they recover from the lows hit in mid-June, when the Dow briefly dropped below 10,800.

Another bullish sign?

The outflow of money from U.S. equity funds has stopped, according to Charles Biderman of TrimTrabs Investment Research. In the week ended June 20th outflows totaled $4.5 billion, but by the end of the following week, inflows and outflows had equaled out, he said.

"If today's rally continues through Friday, we would expect healthy inflows to return in July," he added.

"We have the potential to rally from our current oversold position," said Morgan Stanley technical analyst Mark Newton. "I'm more optimistic for the next month or two than I am for later in the year."

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Related: Fed hikes rates - again

Plus: Bargain-hunting in a stormy market Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.