Treasurys: busy week ahead

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Treasurys rose Monday, as investors look ahead to a busy week featuring $129 billion in government auctions, a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and continued concerns about Greece's debt.

What prices are doing: The benchmark 10-year note rose 4/32 to 98-22/32, pushing the yield down to 3.81%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

10yearyield.png
Click the chart for current prices and yields.

The 30-year bond was flat at 99-12/32 and a yield of 4.67%.The 2-year note rose 1/32 to 99-29/32 with a 1.06% yield. The 5-year note was up 4/32 to 99-22/32 with a yield of 2.57%.

What's moving the market: The Treasury Department's auction of 5-year TIPS Monday saw strong demand, with investors submitting bids totaling $34.2 billion for the $11 billion issue.

The auction is the first of $129 billion in auctions this week including $44 billion in 2-year notes Tuesday, $42 billion in 5-year notes Wednesday and $32 billion in 7-year notes Thursday.

What analysts are saying: "It's really hard to say which way prices will go," said Kim Rupert, a fixed-income analyst with Action Economics. Prices retreated dramatically last week, and some "bargain buying" is raising prices on Monday, she said.

Traders are likely to have some difficulty pricing both the 5-year TIPS and 2-year note auctions this week, since those issues come ahead of a critical Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates on Wednesday, she said.

In an e-mail to investors, Jim Vogel, head of debt agency research at FTN Financial, said overseas investors will likely set the tone for demand, starting with Monday's 5-year TIPS sale.

"Both the larger size and the short maturity are expected to attract new international buyers," he said.

Looking ahead: No key economic reports are due out Monday, but the week ahead offers several potential market-moving events for bonds.

Investors will be watching the Fed's meeting on Wednesday, looking for the buzz words "extended period" in reference to the central bank's position on keeping interest rates near zero. A change in that language could signal the Fed is taking a more optimistic view of the economy and may be ready to change monetary policy sooner rather than later in the year.

Bond traders also will continue to watch Greek headlines to see if the debt-laden country gets its bailout package to avoid a May default.

Reports on jobless claims, consumer confidence and gross domestic product are also expected this week. To top of page

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