The view from Beijing
Naturally, China drew a crowd. The takeaways? Yes, China is big, and growing fast, and you should probably figure out how to invest there. And, no, the country is not about to devolve into social unrest. But it may take time to solve the country's equally impressive challenges. Fortune's Clay Chandler (center) grilled Dr. David Li (right) of The Center for china in the World Economy and Victor Yuan of the Horizon Research Consultancy Group. The eloquent Dr. Li sumarized the thing well: "Let me argue there are two implications: we have to be patient with the Chinese situation. Indeed, the Chinese situation is not ideal, but the changes are in the right direction. Patience is one implication, and the second is that the external world has to be positively accomodating to the emergence of China." UPDATE: Clay Chandler has files the following far better summary of the meeting. SUMMARY: China¹s torrid macroeconomic growth rates belie huge challenges to continued expansion: How to keep generating jobs for China¹s vast population? How to create a social safety net and minimize income inequality? How to avoid fouling air and water, and gobbling energy and other natural resources at such voracious pace that China overwhelms the rest of the planet? How to transition from central planning to a political system better suited to a market economy? For Hu Jintao, running the world¹s fastest growing economy is turning out to be one the world¹s toughest jobs. CLAY CHANDLER, FORTUNE ASIA EDITOR: "Fortune 500 CEOs have come a long way in their understanding of China. At the 1999 Fortune Global Forum in Shanghai they were still groping, trying to figure China out. By the 2005 Global Forum in Beijing, they felt assured. Many had socked billions of dollars into China operations and were visiting China 4 and 5 times a year. Increasingly, CEOs like what they see in China: a nominally socialist system where government leaders all want to talk business, seem to genuinely Œget¹ the global economy and have the administrative muscle to make things happen fast. A common CEO refrain: ³State-led capitalism ya gotta love it.² Many draw a contrast between can-do pragmatism in China and democratic malaise in India. But the reality is a lot more complicated. China¹s leaders are scrambling to keep the economy growing and hold society together. Topping China¹s development agenda, the ŒFive E¹s¹: Employment, Equality, Enterprise, Energy, Environment." DAOKUI "DAVID" LI, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR CHINA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY "Four paradoxes of China: 1) China is a huge economy, but it¹s also a poor economy, with per capita GDP of $1700, barely half that of Russia.... 2) China is an open economy, in the sense that it absorbs billions of dollars in FDI, but in fundamental ways it remains essentially closed. Few Chinese speak English, Chinese society is less open than that of India, and ideologically, it¹s more insular. By comparison, India is a closed economy, but an open society. 3) China¹s economy is highly centralized in the sense the central government oversees all, appoints the political leaders and party secretaries at the state and local levels. But the local officials have a lot of power and the government often has difficulty enforcing its will beyond Beijing. 4) Chinese development seems remarkable stable in the sense that after more than 20 years of reform it is still a one-party state, in which the top officials in the Communist party hold all the top government jobs. But at the same time, Chinese economy has experienced change at a phenomenal rate -- even changing fundamental aspecits of the official ideology -- under that party structure. China¹s five big challenges: 1) GDP is growing rapidly, but growth is lopsided. More than 44% of GDP growth comes from investment. Consumption is just over 50% No other economy has had such lopsided growth. Even in the periods of rapid industrialization in Japan and Korea, investment never exceeded 35% of GDP. 2) Rising social tension. The current government has raised expectations for greater equality and social justice. 3) Natural Resources: If China duplicates the lifestyle and consumption patterns of the US, we will bankrupt the rest of the world in terms of resources. We have to find new ways of enjoying the benefits of modern life that won¹t add to the strain on global resources. 4) Achieving a political Œsoft-landing¹: It¹s widely recognized among China¹s elites that the current system isn¹t compatible with a market economy. But the question is, how to liberalize? If China moves too fast we may create internal problems. 5) Global Leadership: China¹s not used to being a world leader. Today China¹s interests are embedded in the global economy, and yet we¹re developing the leadership and negotiating skills commensurate with our economic stature. Two Implications: 1) Be patient: China is moving in the right direction. 2) The rest of the world needs to be positively accommodating to China¹s emergence. We have to understand what happens in China matters for the rest of the world." VICTOR YUAN, CHAIRMAN, HORIZON RESEARCH CONSULTANCY GROUP "China is a good destination for investment. The general public has more confidence in the government¹s ability to develop the economy than develop good social policy. Several big issues for China to tackle: employment, social security, corruption. People aren¹t so confident about the government¹s ability to root out corruption. About 90% of the public trusts the central government, but maybe on 45% have confidence in the egional/local governments. But there are positive trends: The rise of a younger generation. Chinese raised under Mao¹s one-child policy are active consumers. Call them Generation S for single child. They¹ve created a new foundation. Migration creates new challenges and opportunities. The migrants who come to the cities are demanding equal treatment. Chinese move from the country to the city, they move from city to city, there¹s more tourism enabling them to see the outside world with their own eyes. This is changing the foundation of Chinese social life."
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