(MONEY Magazine) – The odds are against your winning the office NCAA tournament pool. But that doesn't mean you can't improve them.

• FIRST TWO ROUNDS: GO WITH THE FLOW Pick higher seeds in every game unless you really think the lower one is better, advises Bryan Clair, a Saint Louis University mathematician who's studied the probabilities. A wrong pick early can be disastrous if the team you choose to lose makes it to the finals. (In most pools, the points you get for a right pick increase as the rounds go on.)

• CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: GO AGAINST THE GRAIN A plurality of your peers will likely choose first- or second-ranked teams to win it all. But Clair's simulations show you stand to gain more by selecting the third, fourth or fifth. They have a decent shot at winning, and if they do, you'll have less competition for the cash.

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