NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Bombs keep falling, shots keep ringing. The briefings from Central Command and the Pentagon continue. On the front pages of newspapers it's still war, war, war.

The war is over.

No, the generals aren't saying that, nor are the reporters, the people with the White House or even the talking heads. But traders have begun to believe that it's done with. Watching it now is sort of like watching the end of Saturday's match-up between Kansas and Marquette -- you did it, but with Kansas up 30 points, you knew the game was over.

And so the news out of Iraq isn't quite affecting the market like before. Tuesday morning the United States again launched an attack targeted directly at Saddam Hussein in Baghdad. There's no way of knowing, but he may very well have perished in it.

But Wall Street shrugged that news off and stocks, instead of jumping on it like they probably would have a few trading sessions back, edged lower. So did the dollar, which has lately been trading in lockstep with the stock market.

"The news in general was still favorable, but the focus is on what's next," said Brown Brothers Harriman senior foreign exchange economist Nick Bennenbroek. "People aren't only looking at the progress in the war in Iraq, they're starting to think about what's going to come after."

These are thoughts that raise fresh concerns and may mean that the market is due for a pause, at the least.

Nobody knows what postwar Iraq is going to look like, whether it evolves into a fresh force for democracy, as the Bush administration believes it will, or descends into bitter factionalism. And then of course, everyone will want to have a say in how things are set up. Look for more fights at the United Nations and more reports of internecine battles within the Bush administration.

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And then what of the rest of the Middle East? Arab anger at the United States is running high, meaning that if anything the war in Iraq has raised the terrorist threat rather than diminished it.

"Hopefully, perceptions will change," said Miller Tabak bond market strategist Tony Crescenzi. "Collateral damage was kept to a minimum in Baghdad and the troops seem somewhat welcomed there."

The key may be if the United States can usher in a plan that would lead to Palestinian statehood. That is certainly what the White House seems to have in mind, but the road to success is fraught with peril.

Back on the home front, first-quarter company results, which will be reported in full force starting next week, look fairly atrocious. Year on year, analysts expect earnings for companies in the S&P 500 grew by 8.4 percent, according to First Call. That growth is almost entirely an oil story -- energy company earnings are expected to grow by 172 percent. Take the energy sector away from the S&P, and earnings are expected to grow by 1.8 percent. That's not even enough growth to keep up with inflation.

Earnings are widely expected to rebound later in the year -- analysts see growth of 6.9 percent in the second quarter (with energy not such a big contributor), 13.1 percent in the third quarter and 22 percent in the fourth. But these increasingly rosy forecasts depend entirely on a revival in the economy.

At this point, the economy is still on the gurney. The year started decently, but sometime in early February energy costs and war worries began to cut into consumer and business behavior, provoking an abrupt slowdown. Most economists think that, with the end of war nigh and energy prices coming back down, the economy will be able to skirt recession. But they also worry that it's awfully close to the precipice.

Even if the economy doesn't go into recession, it may not lift as quickly as the market would like. Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist Richard Berner reckons that gross domestic product grew at an annualized 1 percent in the first quarter, and will grow by just 0.6 percent in the second. In the second half of the year he thinks the economy will be back on the road to Wellville, growing at 4.3 percent.

"That recovery doesn't happen by itself," he warned. "You have to have fiscal stimulus [from Congress] and you have to have higher stock prices." Neither is a sure thing.

All of the market's concerns -- Iraq, the Middle East, earnings and the economy -- may be resolved positively, of course, meaning the rally may only have begun. But it will take time for things to unfold, and until they do nobody will be quite sure of what to do. Once again, Wall Street's watchword is uncertainty, and investors are holding their breath.