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Good now is not enough
Wall Street knew that 3Q earnings would be strong. It's 2004 projections everyone is watching now.
October 13, 2003: 6:07 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - October is a month of earnings, market crashes and a lot of anguish on Wall Street.

But with a few robust earnings reports and seven blissful trading sessions behind them, investors are starting to look beyond autumn and on to better days ahead, at least through the first half of 2004.

"As the bull market progressed, analysts became more optimistic about next year's earnings," said First Albany chief investment officer Hugh Johnson. "Now, it's the extent to which companies will hit their numbers for 2004 that will make next week so important for the market."

Johnson points out that earnings expectations for the S&P 500, and particularly for tech stocks, have already gone up. When the rally started in mid-March, tech companies' earnings growth for the year ahead was estimated at 24 percent. Now it's seen at 31 percent. That has also led to a jump in valuations. At the start of the rally, tech stocks traded at 20.7 times expected earnings. Now their P/Es are up to 25.4 nest year's earnings.

With a number of big names set to deliver their bottom-line tallies next week, what they have to say about the future will likely make these multiples appear reasonable, Johnson said. So far, with only 42 companies in the S&P 500 having reported third-quarter results, the average per share earnings for the index have already blown past estimates, coming in at $13.88, well above the projected $13.31.

And with signs that the economy is picking up steam, even October's reputation is unlikely to scare investors into a major selloff of stocks, said Tony Dwyer, equity market strategist at FTN Midwest Research.

"We could pull back a bit, but it will be limited to about a 5 percent decline and it will be quick," Dwyer said. "This market rally has not been about buying interest, but about the total lack of selling interest."

Indeed, the Lowry's Reports selling pressure index hit a seven-year low over the past week. "It's hard to imagine how the stock market will get down very far without aggressive selling, and there have been plenty of opportunities for the bears to sell this market off," said John Brooks, senior vice president at Lowry's, who says selling pressure has been "dropping like a stone" since February.

Key events in the week ahead

  • The bond market will be closed Monday and trading on Wall Street will likely be light, due to the Columbus Day holiday.
  • The week will be heavy on earnings reports, including bottom-line scores from Coca-Cola (KO: Research, Estimates), IBM (IBM: Research, Estimates), Intel (INTC: Research, Estimates) and General Motors (GM: Research, Estimates). For details on the reports that will matter most, click here.
  • The week's economic news calendar kicks off Wednesday, with the retail sales report for September. A slew of industry bellwethers, including Wal-Mart (WMT: Research, Estimates), came out with better-than-expected same-store-sales tallies for the month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect retail sales to have inched up 0.2 percent in September, compared with August's 0.6 percent advance.
  • Also Wednesday, the New York State Empire index comes out, courtesy of the New York Fed. The monthly reading on manufacturing in the state is expected to come in at 18, a small decline from the previous month's 18.4.
  • Thursday will bring the weekly initial jobless claims report. Some 390,000 Americans are expected to have filed for unemployment benefits in the week, compared with 382,000 in the week preceding it.
  • Also Thursday, news on inflation at the retail level. The Consumer Price Index is expected to have advanced 0.2 percent in September, compared with a gain of 0.3 percent in August. Sans volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI is seen rising 0.1 percent, the same gain it posted in August.
  • The latest reading on industrial production and capacity utilization is also due out Thursday. Economists expect production to have inched up 0.4 percent in September, compared with a gain of 0.1 percent in August, while capacity utilization rose to 74.8 percent from 74.6 percent in August.
  • Another regional economy reading will reach investors Thursday -- the Philadelphia Fed index, expected to climb to 17 in September from August's 14.6.
  • Friday will bring the latest reading on the still-hot housing market, with numbers on housing starts and building permits for September. Both are expected to show small declines.
  • Rounding the economic picture for the week, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary reading on its consumer sentiment index for October. The index is expected to edge up to 88 from 87.7 in September.
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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.