NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Some early positive results on how the critical holiday shopping season fared could be the catalyst Tuesday to a post-Christmas rally as Wall Street looks set to close 2005 with modest gains.

Early Tuesday, stock futures pointed to a positive open for stocks.

The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday reported that holiday spending rose 8.7 percent versus last year, according to the SpendingPulse report from MasterCard International's MasterCard Advisors unit.

The paper said sales were fueled by demand for electronics such as flat-panel television sets, MP3 players and digital cameras as well as home furnishings. But sales of jewelry fell short this season following years of solid gains, the Journal said.

The November-December buying period is critical for the U.S. retail industry as it can account for as much as 50 percent of annual sales and profits for some retailers.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) had forecast holiday sales to grow 6 percent to $439.5 billion, softer than last year's 6.7 percent increase.

And Wal-Mart (Research), the world's largest retailer, which set the tone for an aggressive holiday shopping season by promising to offer some of the lowest prices on consumer electronics, said it was on pace to meet its December sales forecast.

The retailer expects December sales at its stores open at least a year -- a key retail measure known as same-store sales -- to increase within its forecast for a 2 percent to 4 percent gain.

For the first time in five years the Treasury yield curve inverted early Tuesday, with the yield on the 2-year note briefly surpassing that of the 10-year note. An inverted curve is often a precursor of recession, although some observers are skeptical that the latest inversion is such a warning.

Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 4.39 percent from 4.38 percent late Friday. At 6:19 a.m. ET, the 2-year yield stood at 4.38 percent.

Oil prices retreated 1 percent to below $58 a barrel Tuesday on the back of unseasonably warm weather across much of the United States.

In major markets outside of the U.S., Japan's Nikkei index ended lower Tuesday while major European markets were higher; London was closed for the Boxing Day observance.

The dollar gained ground against the yen and the euro.