CNNMoney.com
Companies Economy International Corrections Pre-market Trading After-hours Trading Winners/Losers/Actives Bonds Currencies Commodities World Markets Money Magazine Real Estate Taxes Jobs Ask the Expert Money 101 Autos Mutual Funds The Help Desk Loan Center Best Places to Live Ask the Expert Ultimate Guide to Retirement Retirement Calculators Rules of Retirement Best Funds Best Places to Retire Fortune Brainstorm Tech Apple 2.0 Blog Big Tech Blog Sectors and Stocks Tech Talk Resource Guide Small Business Makeovers Questions & Answers Small Business Video 100 Best Places to Launch FSB 100 Fortune Small Business Fortune 500 Brainstorm Tech Investing Management C-Suite Rankings Main Create Portfolio Edit Portfolio Create Alerts Edit Alerts
Michael Sivy Commentary:
Sivy on Stocks by Michael Sivy Column archive
Pepsi bulks up on snacks
PepsiCo's successful diversification away from cola continues to help the company outperform Coke.
By Michael Sivy, MONEY Magazine editor-at-large

NEW YORK (MONEY) - For some time, I've been recommending PepsiCo over Coke. That's not a particularly radical viewpoint -- the majority of analysts rate Pepsi a buy.

And the stock has delivered, outperforming Coke by a wide margin. Since early 2003, Pepsi stock has gained 58 percent, while Coke is up 10 percent.

Recently, however, some analysts have begun wondering whether Pepsi has peaked. And other, value-oriented stockpickers have begun considering Coke as a possible bargain.

How do the prospects of the two stocks compare at this point? And which is a better choice to fill the consumer staple slot in a broadly diversified stock portfolio?

The most recent earnings reports tell the story. Last week, PepsiCo announced a nearly perfect report card. Adjusted for an extra week that fell in the fourth quarter, earnings were up 13 percent on a 10 percent gain in revenues.

PepsiCo's targets for 2006 are equally solid. Earnings are projected to grow nearly 11 percent, and cash flow could top $6.2 billion. Half of that can be used for share repurchases, while most of the rest will be available for larger-than-usual capital investment.

By contrast, Coca-Cola reported a fourth-quarter revenue increase of only 7 percent. Net income, after various adjustments, was more or less flat.

Coca-Cola also has ample free cash flow and plans to buy back large amounts of stock, but not as much as Pepsi.

The chief reason for the difference in performance is that Pepsi has diversified much more aggressively than Coke. That has proven essential to long-term success, because the market for carbonated drinks in North America is growing very slowly.

Both companies have diversified into non-carbonated drinks -- Gatorade and Aquafina bottled water for PepsiCo, Minute Maid and Dasani bottled water for Coke. And both companies are expanding internationally.

But PepsiCo has also grown its snack food business. In fact, Frito-Lay now outsells PepsiCo beverages in North America. In addition, Pepsi plans to expand into snacks for health-conscious consumers. Snack foods ultimately offer considerably more potential growth in North America than beverages do.

PepsiCo stock has now risen enough that Coke looks a bit cheap. At $40.74, Coke (Research) offers a 2.7 percent dividend and trades at less than 18 times earnings. That's not a screaming bargain for a company with only a projected 10 percent long-term earnings growth rate. But it's not a bad price for one of the world's best brand names.

Pepsi (Research) has an 11.5 percent-plus long-term growth rate, and a 1.8 percent yield. At $57.60, the shares trade at 19.5 times this year's earnings.

Here's how I size up the two stocks. Pepsi isn't as cheap as it once was. But investors should try to minimize portfolio turnover. Pepsi is growing well and looks as though it has several more years of such results ahead of it.

I might hesitate to commit new money to Pepsi, but I generally believe in hanging on to a successful stock unless its strategy runs into trouble.

I agree that Coke looks underpriced by historical standards. Expectations are modest, and any positive surprises would probably result in a higher valuation. Only trouble is, I don't see a reason for Coke's results to surprise on the upside, and the stock price isn't really cheap enough to be a screaming bargain.

Also:The Pepsi Machine: How Pepsi outmaneuvered Coke by looking beyond the cola wars.

Sivy on Stocks resources:

Sivy 70: America's best stocks

Guide to Growth

_________________

Click here to receive Sivy on Stocks via e-mail every Tuesday. Top of page

YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS
Follow the news that matters to you. Create your own alert to be notified on topics you're interested in.

Or, visit Popular Alerts for suggestions.
Manage alerts | What is this?
© 2009 Cable News Network. A Time Warner Company. All Rights Reserved. Terms under which this service is provided to you. Privacy Policy
Copyright © 2009 BigCharts.com Inc. All rights reserved. Please see our Terms of Use.
MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc.
Intraday data provided by Interactive Data Real-Time Services and subject to the Terms of Use.
Intraday data is at least 20-minutes delayed. All times are ET.
Historical, current end-of-day data, and splits data provided by Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data.
Fundamental data provided by Morningstar, Inc..
SEC Filings data provided by Edgar Online Inc..
Earnings data provided by FactSet CallStreet, LLC.