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Six stock market values
Despite solid long-term outlooks, these six companies are being overlooked by most investors.
By Michael Sivy, MONEY Magazine editor-at-large

NEW YORK (MONEY) - Ever week or so, I get an e-mail from a reader asking which stocks among the Sivy 70 list are my favorites.

My answer is always the same: No one can predict the direction of the stock market or turning points for individual companies with any degree of consistency. Instead of looking for a short-term buy list, it's more important to focus on developing a consistent long-term investing plan.

At any given point in time, of course, some stocks look more attractive than others, either because they have stellar growth prospects or because they have unjustly fallen to big discounts. I try to spotlight such stocks in my weekly columns on this Web site and in the articles I write for MONEY Magazine. And it's always satisfying to catch a company right before its shares take off.

But an occasional smart call isn't where investors make their real money. Achieving your long-term financial goals depends on building a well-balanced portfolio of high-quality equities that will reward you over a decade or longer. Sometimes that means buying a well performing stock that is fully priced. But you can also find bargains among stocks that are unfashionable or simply ignored despite solid long-term prospects.

To spot such potential value in today's market, I have reviewed the companies in the Sivy 70 list looking for shares that have projected long-term total returns of more than 11 percent a year, and price/earnings ratios, based on next year's projected results, of less than 16 (P/Es based on current earnings are higher). I have also looked for companies that seem underappreciated.

You can't know in advance what catalyst will cause investors to re-evaluate a stock and accord it a higher valuation. So recognize that you are playing a little bit of a statistical game. If your portfolio includes a diverse assortment of stocks that have solid future prospects and low valuations based on those expectations, you should be able to achieve your goals without taking excessive risks.

Here's a quick look at the profiles of six undervalued stocks. The latest statistics for these stocks are in the table below.

Aetna is one of America's largest health insurers. The company ran into trouble a few years ago, but has been on the rebound after revamping its business. (Aetna's new CEO talked about the turnaround in a recent interview with CNNMoney.com.) Analysts say Aetna (Research) could prosper over the next five years thanks to its strong franchise for health savings accounts and other consumer-driven health plans.

Everyone agrees that Home Depot (Research) is cheap, particularly compared with the premium P/E multiples it used to command. Despite a stellar fourth-quarter report, many investors fear that the stock will suffer if there is a housing downturn. But analysts see continued strong earnings gains this year and next. And at only 12 times projected 2007 earnings, Home Depot already seems to be discounting potential bad news.

Johnson & Johnson lost out on its attempt to acquire Guidant after failing to outbid Boston Scientific. So J&J still needs to find a way to pump up its growth rate. Fortunately, the company has more than $14 billion of cash and should generate $10 billion in free cash flow this year. That will allow J&J (Research) to make strategic acquisitions or simply buy back stock to increase its earnings per share. The company remains one of the best-diversified health-care businesses trading well below its historical multiples.

Large diversified investment banks such as Merrill Lynch (Research) are certainly cheap and stand to be prime beneficiaries the next time the stock market makes some serious headway on the upside. Recent increases in merger activity are likely to help improve results, as well.

Omnicom is the parent company for advertising agencies, including BBDO Worldwide and DDB Worldwide. Omnicom (Research) enjoyed record levels of new business in the most recent quarter and entered 2006 with higher market share. The stock is a direct play on continued economic expansion.

With brands including Pratt & Whitney jet engines and Sikorsky helicopters, United Technologies typically tracks with the aerospace and defense sector. And as I wrote last month, the outlook for military spending remains quite strong. Moreover, United Technologies (Research) has reaffirmed its positive outlook for 2006. Top of page

Six to watch
The companies below from the Sivy 70 list have projected total returns of at least 11 percent, based on earnings growth and dividend yields, and relatively low valuations.
Company (Ticker) Current price P/E Proj. growth Yield
Aetna (AET) $50.55 18 15.0 0.1%
Home Depot (HD) $41.25 15 13.0 1.5%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $59.08 16 12.9 2.2%
Merrill Lynch (MER) $77.32 14 12.0 1.3%
Omnicom Group (OMC) $80.82 18 11.3 1.2%
United Technologies (UTX) $58.00 18 10.0 1.5%
Prices as of: Mar 14 07:33

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.