Michael Sivy Commentary:
Sivy on Stocks by Michael Sivy Column archive
Predictable dividends can keep the bear at bay
Giant companies that regularly boost their dividends are likely to be the most stable when stocks are volatile.
By Michael Sivy, MONEY Magazine editor-at-large

NEW YORK (MONEY) - Investor anxiety keeps rising as the economic outlook gets more uncertain.

The price of oil continues to be a major concern. But now, investors are also worried about inflation and the possibility that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will have to raise interest rates a lot further.

And although the economy has continued to grow at an above-average rate for most of the past three years, a sharp increase in interest rates could halt that growth -- or even trigger a downturn.

Personally, I think those fears are exaggerated. A number of factors -- including the high oil price and changes in housing prices and rents -- have pushed up the reported inflation rate. But longer-term measures of core inflation remain moderate, and recent inflation pressures could dissipate.

In addition, earnings gains for the most recent quarter were surprisingly strong. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are on track for a 12 percent increase this year, and in the past month more earnings estimates have been raised than cut.

In short, the stock market outlook may well look brighter in a month or two. There's also a possibility, of course, that the bears will be proved right and that all the current projections remain too optimistic.

In any event, the one thing we do know for sure is that stock prices have become more volatile.

Higher volatility argues for giant, financially strong companies that are likely to be more stable than small growth businesses. Over the past six weeks, the Nasdaq has fallen nearly 10 percent, compared with a decline of less than 6 percent for the S&P 500.

There's also a case for companies that have a long history of dividend increases. When part of the return comes from predictable dividends that rise over time, share prices are generally more stable.

In fact, a number of companies in the Sivy 70 have raised their dividends for more than 35 years in a row. Here's a look at five of them.

Coca-Cola

2.8 percent yield; increases for 44 years - Last week, Bear Stearns upgraded Coca-Cola (Research) to Outperform. Although the stock has been stagnant over the past five years, it looks as though Coke is poised for better results in foreign markets, which account for more than 70 percent of the company's operating income. The shares trade at 17.5 times next year's estimated earnings.

Colgate-Palmolive

2.1 percent yield; increases for 43 years - At 19 times next year's earnings, Colgate-Palmolive (Research) gets points as a defensive stock. You don't cut back on toothpaste or soap just because the economy slows down.

Johnson & Johnson

2.4 percent yield; increases for 44 years - At 15.3 times 2007 earnings, Johnson & Johnson (Research) is cheap relative to its premium historical multiple. Nonetheless, J&J faces less generic competition than other drug giants and also enjoys an improving product pipeline.

Procter & Gamble

2.3 percent yield; increases for 50 years - Procter & Gamble (Research) shares rose last week after P&G affirmed positive guidance for the current quarter. Moreover, the company's product lines are recession-resistant. Its P/E is 18/2.

Sysco

2.2 percent yield; increases for 37 years - Sysco (Research), the largest food-distributor in the United States, provides a wide range of food and food-service items to restaurants, health-care and educational distributors. Sysco's size gives it solid ties with existing customers and a strong negotiating position with suppliers. Its P/E is 18.9.

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.